Rubber exports predicted to top $1bil in 2010

VietNamNet Bridge – Rubber exports could rise by a fourth to US$1.5 billion this year, Tran Thi Thuy Hoa, general secretary of the Viet Nam Rubber Association, said.

The global economic turbulence badly affected the rubber industry last year, causing a fall both in demand and price. The International Rubber Study Group has forecast global rubber demand to keep rising from now through 2019, Hoa said, noting that global consumption of natural rubber this year is expected to be 10.43 million tonnes, 8 per cent higher than 2009.

Rubber prices are also forecast to increase on the back of the rising demand and higher crude oil prices, she said.

The global economic turbulence badly affected the rubber industry last year, causing a fall both in demand and price. Many Vietnamese firms incurred heavy losses and had to lay off workers.

In early 2009 raw rubber prices plunged to around $1,000 a tonne against $3,000 in August 2008.

But the situation improved considerably in the second half, with prices consistently rising, especially in recent months, Hoa said.

They climbed to $2,004 by December, Hoa said, noting they have continued to rise this month.

She attributed the price rise to a recovery in demand from many industries around the world and a fall in rubber supply after three leading producers, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, cut output by more than 6 per cent.

Global supply last year was only 9.36 million tonnes, 640,000 tonnes lower than in 2008.

"Although Viet Nam exports rubber to 73 countries, including the US and Japan, nearly 70 per cent of our exports are sold to China," Hoa said.

The country last year exported 489,230 tonnes to China for $761.46 million, or 67.4 per cent of its total export figure.

To avoid the risks involved in putting all their eggs in the China basket, Hoa said rubber exporters needed to diversify their markets.

She also urged administrative agencies to provide timely information about the Chinese market, including price and changes to rubber import regulations, so that they can cope with changes.

Rubber trees would be planted on 30,000-40,000 hectares this year, Hoa said, while total output is expected to be around 770,000 tonnes, of which 750,000 tonnes would be exported.

(VietNamNet/Viet Nam News)