Rubber Climbs to Record in Tokyo as Supply Shortage May Deepen on China

Rubber climbed to a record as rain cut production in Southeast Asia, worsening a shortage as demand for the commodity used in tires expands in China and India. The cash price in Thailand reached an all-time high.

May-delivery rubber on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange climbed to as high as 400 yen per kilogram (4,746 a metric ton), before ending so-called night trading at 399.6 yen. Trading in this session is settled on Tuesday.

Futures advanced after China’s central bank refrained from increasing interest rates and government reports showed China’s economy is gaining momentum, boosting speculation that demand from the largest user will keep expanding. China’s industrial- output growth quickened to 13.3 percent last month from a year earlier, topping economists’ median estimate of 13 percent.

“The figures from China showed economic growth accelerated, regardless of government measures to cool expansion,” Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at research company JSC Corp. in Tokyo, said by phone today. “The data, together with a lack of a rate increase by China, created a bullish mood among investors, leading to a rally in equities and commodities markets.”

May-delivery rubber in Shanghai rose as much as 4.5 percent to close at a daily limit of 35,320 yuan ($5,302) a ton. The contract reached a record 38,920 yuan Nov. 11.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, gained as much as 2.9 percent to 2,923.77. China’s central bank ordered banks to set aside more reserves instead of increasing borrowing costs as had been expected by investors over the weekend.

‘Positive News’

The central bank’s lack of action “is fairly positive news,” He Zhen, who helps manage $301 million as general manager at Shanghai Huili Asset Management. “The central bank will be very cautious about raising interest rates.”

China’s increase in reserve requirements for banks reduced the chances of an increase in interest rates before the end of this year to less than 50 percent, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

The brokerage reiterated its prediction that China will raise interest rates by more than 200 basis points by the end of 2011, according to the report by analyst Dong Tao.

Cash rubber in Thailand surged to a record 138.55 baht per kilogram, boosted by a supply shortage and the Tokyo rally, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.

The price will likely extend gains as latex output in the country starts a seasonal decline as early as next month, said Hisaaki Tasaka, an analyst at Tokyo-based broker ACE Koeki Co.

China, India

“Rain persists in southern Thailand, causing a lack of supply,” Varut Rungkhum, analyst at commodity broker Agro Wealth Ltd. said by phone from Bangkok.

The weaker yen was also supportive of rubber, Sureerat Kunthongjun, an analyst at Agrow Enterprise Ltd., said by phone from Bangkok. The dollar was at 84.19 yen from 83.95 yen Friday.

The deficit in India may widen to 840,000 tons in 2020 from 175,000 tons next year, according to Vinod Simon, president of the All India Rubber Industries Association. In 2015, the shortfall may be 687,000 tons, Simon said.

China’s sales of passenger cars including multipurpose and sport-utility vehicles increased 29.3 percent to 1.34 million last month, higher than the previous record of 1.32 million in January, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The pace of growth was the fastest since April.

(Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-13/rubber-climbs-to-record-in-tokyo-as-supply-shortage-may-deepen-on-china.html)