Many of Thailand's rubber factories are canceling or not renewing long-term export contracts with tiremakers, preferring spot deals in the cash market to take advantage of a bullish price trend, several trading executives said separately Friday.
Renewals of long-term contracts in January are down by at least 50% from a year earlier in terms of volumes traded, they said. Thailand is world's largest producer and exporter of natural rubber, shipping out close to 2.6 million tons annually.
The shift in trade towards spot market deals from long-term contracts is significant because it is resulting in more demand in the cash market and is supportive for prices in the medium term, they said.
"The number of long-term contracts by Thai rubber suppliers has reduced a lot this year," said Pongsak Kerdvongbundit, managing director of Von Bundit Ltd., Thailand's largest manufacturer of natural rubber.
He didn't divulge the number of long-term contracts Von Bundit has finalized with tiremakers in 2010, but said for the industry at large they are substantially lower.
Since prices are rising month after month, rubber factories consider it more profitable to sell at the price prevailing at the time of shipment, traders said.
Natural rubber futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange are currently hovering around Y275 kilogram, up from around Y160/kg in June last year and briefly rose above Y300/kg this month.
Under long-term contracts, tiremakers buy a specific quantity of natural rubber from factories for delivery over a period of six months or one year, normally starting from January or October. The price for the shipments each month are calculated at a premium or discount to the average price of the previous month, usually based on the Singapore Commodity Exchange.
However, when prices fell sharply during the second half of 2008 due to the global economic recession, many buyers, particularly from China defaulted on their purchase contracts.
Now, with prices rising, the situation is the opposite.
"Rubber factories are trying to wriggle out of long-term sale contracts because there is a large difference between prices of even two successive months," said a Thailand-based executive of global trading company Marubeni.
Large tiremakers generally purchase rubber from several factories and use a mix of both long-term and spot deals to meet their needs, and with term supply receding demand pressure is now increasing in the spot market, he said.
A Singapore-based trade executive of tiremaker Goodyear declined to comment.
At the beginning of November, Tocom rubber futures traded around Y225/kg. Prices jumped to Y250/kg at the start of December and Y285/kg in early January.
"If the USS raw material supply is locked in at current price levels, and RSS3 rubber is sold at the average price of previous month, the margins are negative," said an executive at another major Thai rubber producer, Thai Hua.
Buyers argue that for shipment in January, rubber factories would have locked-in their USS purchases in December, but factories contend that floods affected availability late last year.
Von Bundit's Pongsak said the wintering season will start in the next few weeks, bringing lower yields and production.
"Prices in long-term contracts are mostly lower than spot prices which are on the rise. Therefore most factories are refusing to do long-term contracts," he said.
A top executive of a major Thai producer said his company has reduced volumes traded under long-term contracts by almost 50% in 2010, and such contracts now account for barely a 10% share of the company's total natural rubber trade.
Another rubber producer said his company is continuing long-term contracts, but only with a few reliable large tiremakers that didn't default after the fall in prices in 2008.
He said many importers in China--the world's largest natural rubber importer and consumer--have to make purchases at spot prices, increasing their costs of production.
(Source: irco.biz)