During 28 Jan. and 1 Feb., rubber futures and physical markets settled mixed. The benchmark contract for July delivery on the bellwether TOCOM fell to 467.60 yen/kg on 1 Feb. from 469.10 yen/kg on 28 Jan. due mainly to the strengthening Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar and some profit-taking ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holidays in China starting 2 February. However, crude oil futures rebounded during the period caused by concerns about the political protest in Cairo and currently strong market fundamentals could capped the fall.
On the Shanghai futures exchange, the most active rubber contract for May delivery rose from 40,460 yuan/ton on 28 Jan. to 41,390 yuan/ton on 1 Feb. in anticipation and expectation of further rises in commodity prices including crude oil futures, rubber futures, and physical markets after the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays as a dry wintering season has started in major rubber producing countries and investors expect no further monetary tightening measures by China’s central bank in the coming weeks.
| DESCRIPTION |
| 28 JAN |
| 31 JAN |
| 1 Feb |
| CHANGE ** | % CHANGE |
| UNIT | |
| IRCo's DCP | 550.76 | 550.40 | 553.21 | 2.45 | 0.44% | US cents/kg | ||||||
| TOCOM/RSS3 * | ||||||||||||
| - Feb. 11 | 479.30 | 478.70 | 478.40 | -0.90 | -0.19% | Yen/kg | ||||||
| - Jul. 11 | 469.10 | 466.00 | 467.60 | -1.50 | -0.32% | Yen/kg | ||||||
| SHFE/RSS3 *** | 40,460 | 41,255 | 41,390 | 930 | 2.30% | Yuan/ton | ||||||
| AFET/RSS3 | ||||||||||||
| - Feb. 11 | 175.50 | 176.75 | 176.75 | 1.25 | 0.71% | THB/kg | ||||||
| - Aug. 11 | 175.00 | 174.80 | 175.50 | 0.50 | 0.29% | THB/kg | ||||||
| RRIT **** | ||||||||||||
| - RSS3 | 176.80 | 178.05 | 178.05 | 1.25 | 0.71% | THB/kg | ||||||
| - STR20 | 169.80 | 170.30 | 170.30 | 0.50 | 0.29% | THB/kg | ||||||
| SIR20 ***** | 551.00 | 544.00 | 545.00 | -6.00 | -1.09% | US cents/kg | ||||||
| SMR20 ***** | 551.00 | 547.00 | 543.00 | -8.00 | -1.45% | US cents/kg |
Source: IRCo
Note: * Day sessions
** Change between 28 Jan. and 1 Feb. 2011
*** The highest daily trading volume was in May 2011
***** RRIT means Rubber Research Institute of Thailand
****** Offer, f.o.b., Asian physical rubber prices for Feb./Mar. delivery, Dow Jones
There is a high possibility that the political protest in Egypt will continue until the White House can talk to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down safely. If not, we are likely to see further rises in crude oil futures beyond US$100 a barrel and on rubber futures and physical markets in the coming days.
(Source: http://www.irco.biz/BlogMoreDetial.php?id=2723&ShowContent=news)
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