Tokyo rubber futures retreated consecutively during 21 - 22 February after hitting a fresh record high as market players took profits last Friday, and Shanghai rubber futures retreated ahead of the latest raise in the bank reserve requirement ratio of 0.5 percentage points by the People’s Bank of China.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle-East and North Africa, especially in Libya, are now pushing up oil prices worldwide, and we will see tug-of-war between the greenback and commodity prices, crude oil futures in particular, for the time being.
| DESCRIPTION | 21 Feb | 22 Feb | CHANGE | % CHANGE | UNIT | |||||
| IRCo's DCP | 593.21 | 581.57 | -11.64 | -1.96% | US cents/kg | |||||
| TOCOM/RSS3 * | ||||||||||
| - Feb. 11 | 539.00 | 518.80 | -20.20 | -3.75% | Yen/kg | |||||
| - Jul. 11 | 524.90 | 506.70 | -18.20 | -3.47% | Yen/kg | |||||
| SHFE/RSS3 ** | 40,495 | 40,175 | -320 | -0.79% | Yuan/ton | |||||
| AFET/RSS3 | ||||||||||
| - Mar. 11 | 196.20 | 192.60 | -3.60 | -1.83% | THB/kg | |||||
| - Sep. 11 | 195.20 | 190.80 | -4.40 | -2.25% | THB/kg | |||||
| RRIT *** | ||||||||||
| - RSS3 | 198.55 | 197.80 | -0.75 | -0.38% | THB/kg | |||||
| - STR20 | 178.80 | 177.80 | -1.00 | -0.56% | THB/kg | |||||
| SIR20 **** | 568.00 | 550.00 | -18.00 | -3.17% | US cents/kg | |||||
| SMR20 **** | 570.00 | 554.00 | -16.00 | -2.81% | US cents/kg |
Source: IRCo
Note: * Day sessions
** The highest daily trading volume was May 2011
*** RRIT means Rubber Research Institute of Thailand
**** Offer, f.o.b., Asian physical rubber prices for Mar./Apr. deliveries
Furthermore, it is too early to predict whether natural rubber (NR) production this year will be up or down, comparing with the previous year because we are only in the second month of the year. Even though there are additionally mature NR planted areas to be tapped this year, persistently erratic weather still slows normal production. Overexploitation of rubber trees is also another factor that should not be ruled out.
Due to the above mentioned reasons, market correction is likely to continue for a certain period of time, and steady NR demand from tire and non-tire manufacturers should be taken into account as J.D. Power and Associates said on 15 February that global auto sales would increase 6.0% in 2011 to a record 76.5 million new light vehicles.
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