Thursday, October 14, 2010

Tight NR Supplies Will Boost NR Prices Further


Anant Thawatchaipracha

DESCRIPTION
8 OCT
11 OCT
12 OCT
CHANGE **
% CHANGE
UNIT
TOCOM/RSS3 *







- Oct. 10
310.00
Closed
314.40
4.40

1.42%
Yen/kg
- Mar. 11
322.70
Closed
328.20
5.50

1.70%
Yen/kg
SHFE/RSS3 ***
27,685
28,730
29,275
1,590

5.74%
Yuan/ton
SICOM/RSS3







- Nov. 10
378.90
389.30
391.80
12.90

3.40%
US cents/kg
- Oct. 11
382.50
394.00
395.00
12.50

3.27%
US cents/kg
SICOM/STR20







- Nov. 10
368.30
382.20
385.00
16.70

4.53%
US cents/kg
- Oct. 11
367.00
382.00
383.00
16.00

4.36%
US cents/kg
AFET/RSS3







- Nov. 10
110.00
113.00
113.50
3.50

3.18%
THB/kg
- May 11
113.60
116.60
117.45
3.85

3.39%
THB/kg
RRIT ****







- RSS3
112.25
113.75
116.75
4.50

4.01%
THB/kg
- STR20
108.50
110.00
113.50
5.00

4.61%
THB/kg
SIR20 *****
372.00
380.00
385.00
13.00

3.49%
US cents/kg
SMR20 *****
368.00
383.00
388.00
20.00

5.43%
US cents/kg
Source: IRCo
Note: * Day session
        ** Change between 8 Oct and 12 Oct
      *** The highest daily trading volume was Mar. 2011
     **** RRIT means Rubber Research Institute of Thailand
    ***** Offer, f.o.b., Asian physical rubber prices for Nov./Dec. delivery, Dow Jones

Tokyo rubber futures ended slightly lower on Friday 8 October in the wake of the strength of the Japanese yen and weaker oil prices, but Shanghai rubber futures hit its highest in more than two years, according to Reuters News. Nevertheless, physical rubber prices stayed firm on the same day due to strong market fundamentals.
 
On Monday 11 October, Tokyo rubber futures were closed for a public holiday. Shanghai rubber futures led the rubber market by hitting its daily limit and its highest in more than four years on fund buying and heavy rainfall in Southern province of Hainan, the second biggest NR producing area, that lent support for the physical market to rise further.

On Tuesday 12 October, the rubber bellwether, Tokyo rubber futures, rose to their strongest in six months due to concerns about limited NR supply in producing countries and the fall in stock markets and the rising Japanese yen, according to Reuters News.

The current global NR demand is on its way climbing up in contrast with limited supplies due mainly to lingering erratic weather and aging rubber trees in NR producing countries and strong NR demand from global tire and non-tire consumption. Particularly, the world’s present fastest-growing major economies in the global automobile industry, i.e. China and India respectively, are driving hard on the global demand for rubber used in tire production in line with their expansion in automobile markets.

One of many expectations in continuously higher NR prices was noted by Mr. Yium Tavarolit, Chief Secretary and Economist of International Rubber Consortium Company (IRCo) at the 33rd Session of the ANRPC Assembly on 7 October 2010 in Kochi, India, that NR prices were likely to go up further from the current highs if the current NR demand still outstrips NR supply, the greenback continues to weaken further, and the global economy is still able to move forwards in coming quarters.

Furthermore, a recent report by Dow Jones said that China might import 1.7 million tons of NR this year or up 100,000 tons from an earlier year to serve a robust growth in its automobile industry. Also, Indian tire makers have lined up expansion plans worth INR 120 billion (US$2.71 billion) over the next three years, said Rajiv Budhraja, director-general of the local Automotive Tire Manufacturers' Association.

(irco.biz)

No comments:

Post a Comment