NMCE rubber settles down on selling pressure

NMCE rubber futures continued the bearish trend on selling pressure on Monday. TOCOM futures market also traded down on active selling and September futures settled at ¥422.00 per Kg. Fall in oil prices also added to the downside.
Domestic spot market also continued the fall on sluggish demand. Therefore, taking cues from domestic spot and international market futures ended the day on negative note.
The rubbers futures are projected to continue the bearish trend on strong selling interest on Tuesday. TOCOM September futures are also trading down at ¥409.30 per Kg. on active selling.
China may increase its interest rate for 5th time in coming month on rising inflation concern which might pressurize the prices in near term.
Factors to Watch For
Thai market will be closed from April 13 to 15th due to Thai New year. Therefore supply might remain tight in world rubber market
According to Bloomberg sources, China’s natural-rubber imports were 210,000 tons in March, compared with 110,000 tons in February and 190,000 tons in March2010
According to Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation, around 19,641 acres of rubber plantations have been damaged in Thailand due to heavy flood
According to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand, The physical price of Thai rubber dropped to 177.3 baht ($5.89) a kilogram yesterday after the country’s New-Year holidays from 184.8 baht on April 12
As per deputy head of the China Rubber Industry Association, Natural-rubber demand in China, the biggest consumer, will rise 8% this year. Consumption will be 3.24 million metric tons, while tire output will climb 7.9 percent to an all-time high of 453 million units
DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS
Indian Futures (NMCE)
The NMCE May contract, prices and open interest are falling while volumes are rising. Market is running out of traders willing to open or hold a Buy/ Long. Traders are liquidating both loosing long positions & closing winning short positions. A higher probability the market is set to retrace in price lower at some point forward.
Japan Futures (TOCOM)
The TOCOM active September contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Shanghai Futures (SHFE)
The SHFE active August contract, prices and volumes are falling while open interest is rising. It is a good indication that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for downtrend.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.

(Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/NMCE-rubber-settles-down-on-selling-pressure-23264.html)