India: Synthetic rubber demand rises by 5.4 pc in Jan

New Delhi, Apr 30 (PTI) Synthetic rubber consumption has gone up by 5.4 per cent to 35,260 tonnes in January this year compared with the same month last year.

The rubber production, however, went down by almost three per cent to 9,859 tonnes during the month, according the Rubber Board data.

Synthetic rubber consumption and production stood at 33,445 tonnes and 10,249 tonnes, respectively in the year-ago period.

Synthetic rubber is mostly used in the manufacturing of tyres in the country.

India''s synthetic rubber import in January 2010 rose by 2.25 per cent to 22,836 tonnes as compared to 22,336 tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The total stock of synthetic rubber in the country at the end of January 2011 stood at 36,740 tonnes.

(Source: http://in.news.yahoo.com/synthetic-rubber-demand-rises-5-4-pc-jan-154000823.html)

India: Spot rubber prices improve

KOTTAYAM, APRIL 30:

Physical rubber prices turned better on Saturday. The market opened steady but firmed up later on covering purchases following a better closing on NMCE. Traders seemed to be expecting higher prices on Monday once the trend setting Japanese markets resume trading after the long weekend holidays.

Sheet rubber improved to Rs 237 (236.50) a kg according to traders. The grade declined to Rs 236 (237.50) a kg as reported by the Rubber Board.

In futures, the May series improved to Rs 235.16 (233.51), June to Rs 239.50 (237.75), July to Rs 240.75 (238.80), August to Rs 235.61 (234.32) and September to Rs 230.20 (229.13) a kg for RSS 4 on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 237 (236.50); RSS-5: 234 (233); ungraded: 230 (229); ISNR 20: 231.50 (230) and latex 60 per cent 145 (145).

(Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/article1981336.ece)

Rubber prices likely to be lower next week

Lack of demand especially from China due to its high level of rubber inventory is likely to drag prices in Malaysia down next week.

Thailand also was selling their latex at lower prices compared to the market in Malaysia, a dealer said.

Rising supply from major rubber producing countries could also put pressure on prices, he added.

This week, the Malaysian Rubber Board's official daily physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 dropped 114.5 sen to 1,363.5 sen per kg from 1,478 per kg while latex-in-bulk fell 43.5 sen to 985.5 sen per kg from 1,029.0 sen per kg.

Meanwhile, the unofficial price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 105.0 sen to 1,365.0 sen per kg from 1,470.0 sen per kg and latex-in-bulk slipped 43.0 sen to 982.0 sen per kg from 1,025.0 sen per kg.

The market will close on Monday due to Labour Day holiday. -- Bernama

(Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/articles/20110430114930/Article/)

Malaysian Rubber Likely To Trade Weaker

KUALA LUMPUR, April 30 (Bernama) -- Lack of demand especially from China due to its high level of rubber inventory is likely to drag prices in Malaysia down next week.

Thailand also was selling their latex at lower prices compared to the market here, a dealer said.

Rising supply from major rubber producing countries could also put pressure on prices, he added.

This week, the Malaysian Rubber Board's official daily physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 dropped 114.5 sen to 1,363.5 sen per kg from 1,478 per kg while latex-in-bulk fell 43.5 sen to 985.5 sen per kg from 1,029.0 sen per kg.

Meanwhile, the unofficial price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 105.0 sen to 1,365.0 sen per kg from 1,470.0 sen per kg and latex-in-bulk slipped 43.0 sen to 982.0 sen per kg from 1,025.0 sen per kg.

The market will close on Monday due to Labour Day holiday.

-- BERNAMA

(Source: http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=583049)

Rubber Output to Gain as Growers Resume Harvest, ANRPC Says

Natural rubber output will increase in the coming weeks as farmers resume harvesting after the traditional low-production season, easing a “tightness” in global supplies, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
Production from its member countries, representing 92 percent of global supply, may climb 10.5 percent to 2.3 million metric tons in the three months through June, the group said in a monthly bulletin. Output in the first quarter is estimated to have advanced 6.1 percent to 2.27 million tons, the group said.
Rubber futures have surged 16 percent since dropping to a four-month low of 335 yen per kilogram on March 15 after Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, the top three growers, joined forces to tackle the slump in prices. The most-active contract gained 2.8 percent to settle at 389.1 yen per kilogram ($4,773 per metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange today (Apr 28).
“Increasing production will probably pressure prices amid worries demand may weaken after Japan’s earthquake disrupted the supply chain of auto manufacturing,” Sureerat Kunthongjun, an analyst at AGROW Enterprise Ltd., said by phone from Bangkok.
Full-year output is forecast to grow 5.8 percent to 10.03 million tons, the producers’ group said. Output in Thailand, the largest grower and exporter, may fall to 3.38 million tons from 3.43 million tons estimated last month due to unseasonal heavy rains and floods, the group said.
Minimum Price
Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, representing 70 percent of global rubber output, agreed in March on a minimum price of $4 a kilogram after futures plunged 37 percent from a record 535.7 yen reached on Feb. 18. Farmers in Southeast Asia reduce tapping during so-called wintering, from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops.
Demand for natural rubber in China, India and Malaysia, which account for 48 percent of global usage, may expand in the second quarter, the group said. China’s imports may jump 30 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decline of 22.5 percent in the same period a year ago, the group said. The country may consume 945,000 tons of natural rubber between April and June, more than the 734,000 tons in the first quarter.
Natural rubber imports by India and Malaysia may rise 7 percent and 23 percent respectively in the three months to June, it said.
(Bloomberg, April 28, 2011)

NR Demand Keeps NR Prices High - ANRPC

Demand for natural rubber remains strong, especially in China. This has meant the price has resisted the decline seen in some other commodities. In response, supply is expected to increase in the next three months, according to new data published by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) in the April issue of its publication, Natural Rubber Trends & Statistics.
Total production of NR from members of the ANRPC is expected to touch 651,000 tons during April this year, up 7.9 percent from a year earlier. During second quarter (April-June), the production is anticipated rise 10.5 percent from a year before. Demand, however, is also rising.
Nevertheless, ANRPC said, " Tightness in NR supply is expected to ease in the coming weeks as farmers gradually resume harvesting after the ‘wintering’ offseason. Total supply from the ANRPC member countries is expected to reach 651,000 tons in April and 753,000 tons in May. In March, the production stood at 580,000 tons only.
China is anticipated to consume 945,000 tonnes of NR during the second quarter (April to June) as against 734,000 tonnes in the first quarter. The country is expected to import 270,000 tonnes of NR (including compounds containing more than 95 percent NR) during April and 235,000 tonnes during May.
After two successive months of decline, said ANRPC, China’s import-demand turned positive in March by clocking a 1.4 percent year-to-year growth to 297,000 tons. The government anticipates the import to rise 47.8 percent in May from a very low base in the year before. The import during the second quarter (April to June) is forecast to rise 21.3 percent, year-to-year, as against a 2.3 percent fall in Q1. The expected sharp rise in Q2 is attributed to the very low volume imported during the same quarter of the previous year. Import had fallen 22.1 percent in the second quarter in 2010.
(European Rubber Journal, April 28, 2011)

Tokyo rubber tumbles

Tokyo  (april 29, 2011) : key tokyo rubber futures logged their largest monthly loss since november 2008 in april as last month's massive japan earthquake and tsunami slashed auto output, though they rose 2.8 percent on thursday on firm oil and commodity prices and a weaker yen.
the benchmark tocom rubber futures for october delivery rose as high as 394 yen, up 4 percent, before settling at 389.1 yen per kg, up 10.5 yen or 2.8 percent from wednesday's settlement. the market ended the week down 7 percent and was down 10 percent on the month, the biggest monthly decline since a 25 percent drop in november 2008.

(Source: http://www.brecorder.com/news/agriculture-and-allied/world/1183338:tokyo-rubber-tumbles.html?hl=rubber)

China demand for Indonesia rubber seen up 33pct-assoc

* Indonesia's China rubber exports seen at 800,000 T in 2011

* Up 33 percent against last year's 600,000 T

* Japan shipments head to China; tyre sector demand rises (Adds comments, background)

By Yayat Supriatna

JAKARTA, April 28 (Reuters) - Indonesia will export a third more rubber this year to China, which will become the top buyer from the world's second-largest producer, as demand from Chinese tyre makers rises, taking the place of the drop in Japan after the earthquake, the Indonesian Rubber Association said on Thursday.

China will replace the United States in 2011 as Indonesia's biggest rubber export market, with up to 800,000 tonnes heading to the world's second-largest economy, Asril Sutan Amir, chairman at the association, known as Gapkindo, told Reuters.

"Indonesia's rubber export to China may reach (from) 600,000 tonnes (in 2010) to 800,000 tonnes in 2011 because of export shifting from Japan after the earthquake and tsunami," said Amir, who was speaking ahead of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Indonesia this week.

"Our (rubber) export to China is increasing significantly in 2011," he added. "It is obvious that China is now the biggest market for Indonesian rubber."

Late last month, Gapkindo told Reuters that the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in March, which triggered a nuclear crisis, would have little impact on Indonesian rubber. [ID:nL3E7EN07W]

Japan accounts for around 7 percent of global demand for natural rubber. [ID:nL3E7EF1DQ]

"In several years to come, the export volume may reach 1 million tonnes," he added. "That's because China now is the biggest tyre maker in the world."

Global demand for rubber, both natural and synthetic, is forecast to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010, the International Rubber Study Group said in March. [ID:nL3E7EB118]

Dealers say this was in part due to a recovery in the automotive sector, though that had not factored in the plight of the Japanese automakers.

The U.S. auto industry snapped a four-year sales decline in 2010, including three consecutive months of sales above the 12 million-unit annual rate.

Indonesia will produce an estimated 2.972 million tonnes of rubber this year, versus 2.736 million tonnes last year, Amir told reporters earlier this month. [ID:nL3E7FF1LS]

Indonesian rubber exports will be 2.45 million tonnes this year, up from 2.352 million tonnes in 2010, he added.

Wen is visiting Malaysia and Indonesia this week to seal a series of agreements covering everything from banking and energy to palm oil and infrastructure. [ID:nL3E7FL0GC]

Amir said there would be several Chinese rubber and tyre industry figures among the Chinese business delegation accompanying Wen.

(Source: http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/China-demand-for-Indonesia-rubber-seen-up-33pct-assoc-2011-04-28T121120Z-UPDATE-1-INTERVIEW)

Global rubber body lowers output forecast

Singapore: Global natural rubber production for 2011 may come in at 10.025 million tonne, lower than an earlier forecast of 10.060 million tonne due to output revisions in member countries, the ANRPC said on Thursday.

Despite the revision, the global output for the commodity mainly used in tyre was still higher than 9.473 million tonne in 2010, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).

The ANRPC's total supply would rise this year by 5.8%, slightly slower than the previously-expected 6.2% rate, the group said in a report.

The revision results from down-scaling of Thailand's figure and China; and slightly improved outlook expected for Indonesia and India.

Output in Thailand, the world's main rubber producer, was revised down to 3.375 million tonne in 2011 from an earlier forecast of 3.430 million tonne, still higher than 3.252 million tonne in 2010.

Second-largest producer Indonesia's output forecast was raised to 2.972 million tonne from a prior estimate of 2.955 million tonne. Last year, Indonesia produced 2.736 million tonne.

(Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/global-rubber-body-lowers-output-forecast/783123/0)

India: Spot rubber slips on selling pressure

KOTTAYAM, APRIL 28:

Spot rubber finished lower on Thursday. According to sources, the market slipped in tune with declines on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE). There was no fresh demand from major consuming sectors and the commodity remained under pressure on scattered selling from dealers. The volumes were comparatively low.

Natural rubber market has showed signs of correction beginning from mid-April largely on concerns about the global economy, Japanese yen's appreciation, and a marginal drop in crude oil prices according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries. However, the extent of the decline has been marginal following a rise in China's demand and sharp fall in dollar.

New concerns about the supply caused by unseasonal rains during March in Thailand and during April in Malaysia have also cushioned the price fall. The natural rubber market is appeared to have gained from a recent rebound of hedge funds in Asia-Pacific markets and their inflationary pressure on commodity prices.

According to traders, sheet rubber closed weak at Rs 236.50 (237.50) a kg on buyer resistance. The grade dropped to Rs 237.50 (238.50) a kg, as quoted by the Rubber Board.

The May series weakened to Rs 234.91 (237.00), June to Rs 239.28 (241.11), July to Rs 239 (241.74), August to Rs 234.60 (234.65) and September to Rs 229.75 (230.83) a kg for RSS 4 on the NMCE.

RSS 3 recovered at its May futures to ¥439 (Rs 238.80) from ¥429.8 a kg during the day session but then remained inactive in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The grade (spot) slipped to Rs 250.41 (250.95) a kg at Bangkok.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 236.50 (237.50); RSS-5: 233 (234); ungraded: 229 (230); ISNR 20: 230 (231.50) and latex 60 per cent: 145 (146).

(Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article1819474.ece)

Rubber prices end lower

The Malaysian rubber market ended lower for the fourth consecutive day as buyers remained sidelined ahead of the Labour Day market closure on May 1.
"Although the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was slightly up most traders adopted a wait and see attitude, expecting prices to turn easier in the near future," he said.
At 12pm, the Malaysian Rubber Board's official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 31.5 sen to 1,381.5 sen per kg, from 1,413.0 sen per kg, yesterday while latex-in-bulk dropped 15.5 sen to 990.5 sen per kg, from 1,006.0 sen per kg, recorded previously.
The unofficial sellers' closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 21 sen to 1,374.5 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk eased 10.5 sen to 989.0 sen per kg. – Bernama
(Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20110428173044/Article/index_html)

Good Year calls senior notes worth $350 mn for redemption

AKRON(Commodity Online) : The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company has called $350 million of its outstanding 10.500% senior notes due 2016 for redemption on May 27, 2011. Goodyear intends to use net proceeds from its recent mandatory convertible preferred stock offering to fund the redemption.
The redemption will result in savings to annualized interest expense of approximately $40 million, of which about $23 million will be realized in 2011.
The redemption price is 110.500% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to May 27, 2011. The redemption is pursuant to provisions of the notes that allow the company, at its option, to redeem up to 35 percent of the original principal amount of the notes with proceeds from one or more equity offerings.
Goodyear is one of the world’s largest tyre companies. It employs approximately 72,000 people and manufactures its products in 55 facilities in 22 countries around the world.

(Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/commodity-stocks/Good-Year-calls-senior-notes-worth-$350-mn-for-redemption-2011-04-28-38542-3-1.html)

Training on latex-based rubber products

KOTTAYAM, APRIL 28:

The Rubber Board is organising a five-day training programme in the manufacture of latex-based rubber products in Rubber Training Institute in Kottayam from May 2 to 6. The course includes production of rubber band, gloves, rubber thread and balloons. The training fee is Rs 1,750. SC/ST candidates will be given 50 per cent concession in course fee.

The payment may be made by money order or demand draft drawn in favour of Director, Training, Rubber Board payable at Kottayam.

(Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article1773235.ece)

Tokyo Futures Rebound On Oil, Gold Prices

Key TOCOM rubber futures rebounded after three consecutive days of losses on Thursday (Apr 28) on higher gold and oil prices following signs that the U.S. may continue its easy monetary policy, but investors were cautious of active buying ahead of a long weekend.
FUNDAMENTALS
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for October delivery was up 1.3 percent, or 4.9 yen, at 383.5 yen per kg as of 0020GMT.
The most active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery slid 2.2 percent, or 740 yuan, to close at 32,160 yuan per tonne. Volume stood at 948,158 lots.
U.S. crude futures rose to $113.70 a barrel in early trade on Thursday (Apr 28), to their highest in 2-1/2 years as the dollar remained under pressure after a meeting of the Federal Reserve.
The dollar index fell to a fresh three-year low on Thursday (Apr 28) as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did nothing to change the prevailing perception that the U.S. central bank is in no hurry to raise rates.
Gold climbed to a record high of almost $1,530 an ounce on Wednesday (Apr 27) and silver jumped 6 percent.
(Reuters, April 28, 2011)

Vietnam Natural Rubber (SVR) F.O.B price 28.04.2011

(Source: http://vnb-blog.blogspot.com/2011/04/vietnam-natural-rubber-price-28042011.html)

Thailand Rubber F.O.B. Price 28.04.2011

(Source: http://vnb-blog.blogspot.com/2011/04/thailand-rubber-price-28042011.html)

‘Rubber to turn surplus by 2012’

The new chairman of Rubber Board , Sheela Thomas, has assumed charge at a time when rubber prices are at a historic high. The average domestic price of rubber stood at Rs 190.03 per kg in 2010-11 compared to Rs 114.98 per kg in the previous year. However, availability of rubber in the market has remained quite low throughout the year. Trade and industry bodies have questioned the stock estimates of the Board. Apart from this, production itself has been affected by the shortage of labour and postponement of field operations like replanting of trees. But Sheela Thomas is confident that the problems that the sector is facing can be resolved soon. In an interview to ET's S Sanandakumar , the chairman said that the stress is now on new planting and replanting during the 12th Plan period. Excerpts:
Availability of rubber is the main concern of traders and industries. Some of them have questioned the stock estimates of the Board. What are your views on this issue?
It is true that some stakeholders see availability of rubber as an area of concern. But our statistics show that enough rubber is there in the system. There are some who say that our statistical estimate is wrong. But nobody has come up with any data to prove that. If at all there is a mistake, it can only be with regard to the stock with the growers. The estimate of stocks with other sections is based on the returns they file. Because of these reasons, we have decided to have a relook at the stocks. Suggestions from the stakeholders are welcome. We will be looking at all aspects of the issue including our statistical analysis.
How are replanting and new planting operations progressing?
In the 11th Plan period, we could achieve the target with respect to new planting or new area under rubber plantations. But we could not meet the target for rubber replanting. With prices ruling high, the growers have been postponing the replanting. But in the 12th Plan period, we would give stress to both these operations. New plantations will be developed in non-traditional areas that are suited for rubber. Areas with long dry spell and severe winter are not good for rubber . Karnataka, parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Goa etc are the regions identified for expanding rubber cultivation.
There is a serious shortage of rubber tappers. How do you address this issue?
Yes, there is a shortage. But the situation is not very serious. We have been offering training to workers from other states. Moreover , tapping should be made remunerative for the workers. Other incentives like pension scheme are being considered for them. Discussions are going on, and we hope some incentives can be worked out.
How do you view the price rise of natural rubber in the international market?
The rubber price rise is on account of the shortage of rubber in the international market . The oil price rise and ecological concerns have imposed certain limits to the growth of synthetic rubber. On the other hand, a real substitute for natural rubber is yet to be developed . So, it appears that the price situation will continue for some time. A surplus situation in rubber is expected only by 2012. But if there is a major fall in prices, the domestic policy with regard to rubber can be reviewed.

(Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/rubber-to-turn-surplus-by-2012/articleshow/8104676.cms)

Tokyo Futures Fall For 3rd Session In Row On Demand Concerns

Key TOCOM rubber futures on Wednesday (Apr 27) fell 2.9 percent to a five-week low as concerns over weak demand from Japan's auto industry and a stronger yen weighed on the market.
The key Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber contract for October delivery settled down 11.3 yen at 378.6 yen per kg, falling for a third session in a row.
The contract fell as much as 3.1 percent to 378 yen per kg before the close as weakness in Shanghai rubber futures weighed on sentiment.
The most active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery slid 2.2 percent, or 740 yuan, to close at 32,160 yuan per tonne. Volume stood at 948,158 lots.
"Market sentiment is weak as it looks likely that Japan's carmakers will not get back to normal operations until the end of this year," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, a general manager at trading company Nihon Unicom Inc in Tokyo.
"Investors are now a lot more cautious, apparently as a reaction to the strong gains of late last year."
Japan's major carmakers announced big production cuts after a March 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami savaged the sector's parts supply chains.
French carmaker Renault said on Wednesday (Apr 27) the impact of the Japan earthquake and tsunami on the auto industry supply chain could lead to slower production in the coming months.
Global 2011 auto industry production growth will now be below 6 percent because of the Japan disaster, finance chief Dominique Thormann told a conference call, adding that he would have raised that forecast had it not been for the earthquake.
Standard and Poor's threatened to cut Japan's sovereign credit rating again, warning the huge cost of last month's quake will hurt already weak public finances unless bickering politicians can agree to raise taxes.
The dollar fell broadly on Wednesday (Apr 27), marking a fresh nadir against the Swiss franc and a 29-year trough against the Australian dollar as investors expect no surprises from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the day while the Japanese yen was dented after Standard and Poor's cut its rating outlook on Japan.
Crude futures fell on Wednesday (Apr 27) as investors waited for details of the U.S. Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy and its monetary policy stance, while a weak dollar provided support.
Japan's Nikkei closed up 1.4 percent on Wednesday (Apr 27), posting its strongest percentage gain in a week, with investors relieved that many of the first major earnings reports and guidance after the last month's quake did not yield any nasty surprises.
A fresh batch of corporate results pushed U.S. stocks to their best levels since June 2008 on Tuesday (Apr 26), renewing optimism that profit growth will remain resilient enough to keep equities on the rise.
(Reuters, April 27, 2011)

Toyo Raises Commercial Tyre Prices in US

A price adjustment taking effect on May 1, 2011 will see the price of all commercial vehicle tyres sold by Toyo Tire U.S.A. Corp. increase by up to 15 per cent, with in-line adjustments occurring.

The manufacturer states this rise reflects the continued escalation in raw material costs. “Due to the steep increase in the costs of raw materials affecting our industry, we must reluctantly raise prices of our product,” said John Hagan, senior director, sales, Toyo Tire U.S.A. “We appreciate the continued support and understanding of our dealers as we remain committed to providing the highest quality products.”
(Tyrepress.com, April 27, 2011)

Honda Outlook Grim, Hyundai To Gain On Japan Quake

Honda Motor and Hyundai Motor will paint vastly different pictures for the year ahead when they report earnings on Thursday (Apr 28) after the March 11 earthquake hammered car production in Japan and helped overseas rivals in the process.
The magnitude-9.0 earthquake and the tsunami it triggered have disrupted the supply of hundreds of components from Japan's northeast region, paralysing car production and reversing what had been shaping up to be a firm recovery from the financial crisis for Japanese automakers.
While the supply bottleneck of certain specialty parts such as microcontroller units made by Renesas Electronics Corp has also hit some automakers outside Japan, most of the pain is being inflicted on domestic brands such as Honda, where output remains at half the level planned before the quake.
Honda and Toyota Motor have forecast a return to normal production by the end of 2011, but said they do not know how quickly volumes will pick up, making it difficult to assess their earnings for the business year that started this month.
Honda may refrain from giving an annual forecast when it reports results at 3 p.m. in Tokyo (0600 GMT). Mitsubishi Motors Corp and Toyota subsidiary Daihatsu Motor gave no guidance on Wednesday (Apr 27).
A survey of 15 analysts forecast Honda's operating profit to sink 37 percent to 394 billion yen ($4.83 billion) in the business year to March 31, 2012, from an estimated 627 billion yen in 2010/11.
For the January-March fourth quarter, operating profit is forecast to rise 7.3 percent to 103.1 billion yen, according to consensus estimates gathered by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S after the quake.
The slump in auto production accounted for about half the record 15.3 percent fall in Japanese factory output in March, the government said on Thursday (Apr 28).
The earthquake has not only splintered the industry's complex supply chain, but has forced a delay in vehicle launches.
Honda had been scheduled to begin selling a new hybrid station wagon based on the popular Fit subcompact in Japan a week after the quake, while Toyota has also postponed the launch of wagon and minivan versions of the Prius.
But an even bigger worry is what the shortage of Japanese cars and the long wait for consumers would do to their market share in key regions such as the United States and China as some car buyers opt to shop at competing brands, one analyst said.
"Frankly, right now there's no way to know how this will play out in the medium to longer term," said Takaki Nakanishi, an auto analyst at Merrill Lynch Japan Securities.
"While supply is tight through the summer, some sales will shift to other brands such as Hyundai. We'll only start to get a sense of whether this trend is temporary or not towards the end of the year."
FULL SPEED AHEAD FOR HYUNDAI
That is just what analysts are expecting as they project further market share gains for Hyundai and the top South Korean automaker's affiliate, Kia Motors.
The pair, which together rank fifth in the world in car sales, are expected to post double-digit growth in net profits for their January-to-March first quarter, driven by a global market recovery and strong demand for new models.
Hyundai is expected to post first-quarter net income of 1.36 trillion won ($1.3 billion), up 20 percent from a year ago, while Kia's net profit is seen surging 70 percent to a record 676.41 billion won.
The momentum is set to pick up in April-June as they enjoy higher pricing, partly helped by the output cuts in Japan. Hyundai and Kia have been virtually unaffected by the disaster because they use few Japanese components.
"Before the earthquake, concerns lingered about price competition, but we can pretty much rule that out now," said Yoon Pil-joong, an analyst at Samsung Securities.
Hyundai will report first-quarter earnings at 2 p.m. in Seoul (0500 GMT) on Thursday (Apr 28) and Kia announces on Friday (Apr 29).
Hyundai and Kia are targeting combined sales of 6.33 million vehicles this year, which could be on par with Toyota's sales, which analysts forecast at 6.3 million to 7 million.
As of Thursday (Apr 28) morning, Honda's shares were down 7.1 percent from pre-quake levels, compared with a 7.7 percent fall in Tokyo's transport sector subindex. Hyundai's shares have surged 29 percent in the same period, hitting record highs this month.
"Japanese car makers have failed to provide a clear picture of how they are going to get back on their feet," said Park Sang-won, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities in Seoul.
"They may lose their leadership in the global auto market to Korean car makers for the longer term."
(Reuters, April 28, 2011)

Tokyo rubber futures fall

Tokyo  (april 28, 2011) : key tocom rubber futures on wednesday fell 2.9 percent to a five-week low as concerns over weak demand from japan's auto industry and a stronger yen weighed on the market. the key tokyo commodity exchangerubber contract for october delivery settled down 11.3 yen at 378.6 yen per kg, falling for a third session in a row. the contract fell as much as 3.1 percent to 378 yen per kg before the close as weakness in shanghai rubber futures weighed on sentiment.
the most active rubber contract on the shanghai commodity exchange for september delivery slid 2.2 percent, or 740 yuan, to close at 32,160 yuan per tonne. volume stood at 948,158 lots.

(Source: http://www.brecorder.com/news/agriculture-and-allied/world/1182994:tokyo-rubber-futures-fall.html?hl=rubber)

Tokyo Futures Up On Firm Oil, Capped By Yen, Auto Concerns

Key Tokyo rubber futures rose on Wednesday (Apr 27) as oil prices firmed, but the rise was capped by a stronger yen and concerns over weak demand from Japan's auto industry which has been hit by supply chain disruptions after last month's earthquake.
FUNDAMENTALS
The benchmark TOCOM rubber futures for October delivery, rose 5.3 yen or 1.4 percent to 395.2 yen per kg as of 0011 GMT.
On Tuesday, the contract fell nearly 3 percent to as low as 384.3 yen, hurt by concerns about weak demand from the Japanese auto industry and sluggish Shanghai rubber futures.
The most active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery fell 370 yuan ($56.680) per tonne to close at 32,900 yuan per tonne on Tuesday (Apr 26). Volume stood at 630,100 lots.
Oil was steady on Wednesday after Brent crude edged up in volatile trading and U.S. crude ended little changed the day before as investors eyed a U.S. Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting for any signal of a change in monetary policy.
The euro scaled fresh 16-month peaks against a broadly weaker greenback early in Asia on Wednesday, while the Swiss franc hit a record high as markets held bearish bets on the U.S. currency ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar slid to three-week lows around 81.29 yen.
(Reuters, April 27, 2011)

Asian Physical Rubber Prices On April 27

Asian physical rubber prices were slightly changed and stayed at relatively firm levels on Wednesday (Apr 27), supported by demand on the fundamental side as buying resumed after prices slipped, dealers said.
But weaker futures prices on the Tokyo and Shanghai commodity exchanges still weighed, they said.
PRICES OF PHYSICAL RUBBER COMPARED TO APRIL 26

NOTE - The prices quoted above are offer prices collected from traders in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. They are not official prices quoted by state-run rubber agencies in those countries.
(Reuters, April 27, 2011)

Spot rubber rules steady

KOTTAYAM, APRIL 26:

Spot rubber ruled steady on Tuesday. The market seemed to be lacking initiative to set a definitive trend as traders were not interested to expand their commitments. Intermittent summer rain and expectations of an improvement in arrivals seemed to be guiding the sentiments. But it really appeared to be difficult to forecast any immediate change in the fundamental or technical position of the market.

According to traders, sheet rubber continued to remain unchanged at Rs 240 a kg amidst scattered transactions. The grade slipped to Rs 239.50 (240) a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, according to Rubber Board.

The May series closed at Rs 242.30 (242.74), June at Rs 246.70 (247.67), July at Rs 248 (248.13), August at Rs 239.55 (239.33) and September at Rs 231.55 (230) a kg for RSS 4 on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.

RSS 3 (spot) weakened to Rs 254.38 (258.73) a kg at Bangkok. The May futures for the grade declined to ¥435.8 (Rs 237.31) from ¥442.8 a kg during the day session but then remained inactive in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147)/

(Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article1770870.ece)

Plantation guidance for rubber producers

KOTTAYAM, APRIL 26:

The Rubber Board distributes plantation inputs through the Rubber Producers' Societies (RPS) at concessional rate to the small holders for the implementation of scientific agro-management practices and enhancement of productivity in their holdings. Copper oxychloride, spray oil, copper sulphate, rain guarding plastic and rain guarding compound are the estate inputs arranged for distribution. The inputs are available to the growers who have already given their requirements through the RPSs. The move is intended to help small holders for adoption of disease control and scientific tapping methods. The rate fixed for various inputs are copper oxychloride (Rs 267/kg), copper sulphate (Rs 111/kg), rainguarding plastic (Rs 78/kg), rainguarding compound (Rs 22/kg) and spray oil (Rs 42/l).

(Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article1770863.ece)

Rubber Declines on Demand Concerns Following Japan’s Earthquake Crisis

Rubber declined amid concern that a disruption in car production caused by Japan’s record earthquake will continue, curbing demand for the commodity.
The September-delivery contract lost as much as 3.4 percent to 404.9 yen per kilogram ($4,930 per ton) on Monday (Apr 25), extending last week’s 3.7 percent slump, before settling at 405.2 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
Toyota Motor expects production for all models to return to normal by November or December, as the world’s biggest carmaker struggles with supply-chain disruptions caused by Japan’s largest earthquake and tsunami on record.
Top tire maker Bridgestone plans to suspend production lines and limit operating hours at factories serviced by Tokyo Electric Power to save electricity during Japan’s summer.
“The auto industry is having difficulty recovering from damage caused by the quake, raising speculation that negative influences on rubber demand may be prolonged,” said Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at broker Fujitomi.
Toyota will begin raising production to regular levels from July in Japan and from August at overseas plants, the carmaker said in a statement on Friday (Apr 22).
The company may lose production of 300,000 vehicles in Japan and 100,000 units overseas through the end of April because of quake-related shutdowns, executive vice president Atsushi Niimi said on Friday (Apr 22).
He added that Toyota was unlikely to meet its full-year global output target of 7.7 million units.
October-delivery rubber, which was listed on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange on Monday (Apr 25), settled at 395.9 yen after opening at 413 yen.
Rubber was also sold amid concern that China, the world’s largest consumer of the raw material, may increase interest rates further to curb inflation, capping demand, Saito said.
China’s consumer prices may rise between 5.2 percent and 5.5 percent in April, according to China International Capital.
“China demand continues to slow and its low level of stockpiles showed that the country used its own reserves rather than buying raw materials in the market,” said Chaiwat Muenmee, an analyst at commodity broker DS Futures.
China’s natural-rubber inventories reportedly fell for an 11th straight week, losing 1,222 tons to an eight-year low of 14,717 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said on Friday (Apr 22).
The physical price of Thai rubber dropped 1.4 percent to 174.55 baht ($5.83) per kilogram on Monday (Apr 25), according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.
Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping during the so-called wintering season from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.
(Jakarta Globe, April 25, 2011)

Tyre Stocks Rally Since Modi Deal, May Not Sustain In India

Shares of Indian tyre companies have gained by three to 13 per cent after German tyremaker Continental AG agreed to buy Modi Rubber’s unit last week.
Since the Continental-Modi Tyres deal last Monday (Apr 25) for an undisclosed amount, shares of Modi Rubber have rallied nearly 20 per cent. Other tyre stocks like MRF (up 12.1 per cent), Apollo Tyres (up 7.3 per cent), Balkrishna Industries (up 4.55 per cent), JK Tyre & Industries (up 3.1 per cent) and Ceat (up 3.3 per cent) have all gained since then.
However, market experts are not impressed. “Whenever some deal happens, shares of other companies in the same sector are also going up. This has been the trend in the market in the recent past,” said S P Tulsian, an independent investment advisor. “The upmove in tyre stocks post the Continental-Modi Tyres deal is irrational and not sustainable,” he added.
Last month, shares of paper companies rallied 13-20 per cent after US-based International Paper, the world’s biggest paper company, agreed to buy a majority stake in Andhra Pradesh (AP) Paper Mills for $423 million. Most paper companies have sustained those gains since, as International Paper had offered a 180 per cent premium to the promoters of AP Paper.
In the case of tyre companies, the outlook for the sector is not rosy. “There will be some pressure on margins of tyre companies in the next two-three quarters due to high natural rubber prices,” said Ashwin Patil, analyst at LKP Securities. “However, current rubber prices which are ruling at Rs 230-240 a kg are not sustainable and should come down to around Rs 180-200 a kg by that time.”
Prices of natural rubber, which comprise a little over 40 per cent of raw material cost in tyre manufacturing, have increased 16 per cent in this year so far. Over the next 12-15 months, rating agency Icra expects the profitability of tyre manufacturers to be affected by the expected supply gap for rubber, despite robust demand for tyres.
Domestic tyre manufactures are also facing the threat of increasing penetration of Chinese imports into the Indian truck and bus radial tyre segment.
(Business Standard, India, April 26, 2011)

Tokyo rubber futures fall

Tokyo  (april 26, 2011) : key tokyo rubber futures fell 4 percent on monday on weakness in shanghai rubber futures and concern over softening demand from the japanese auto sector. the benchmark tocom rubber futures for october delivery, which debuted on monday, fell as low as 395.4 yen per kg, down 4.3 percent from its opening price, before settling at 395.9 yen, down 17.1 yen from the open.
the previous benchmark for september delivery settled down 13.8 yen at 405.2 yen per kg. the most active rubbercontract on the shanghai commodity exchange for september delivery fell 1,510 yuan ($232.057) per tonne to close at 33,270 yuan per tonne on monday.
"tocom futures slid as chinese rubber futures and stocks fell on concerns about the impact on economic growth from monetary tightening," said kazuhiko saito, chief commodities analyst at fujitomi co. he said a fall in the september delivery contract below 400 yen could pave the way for a technically weak market, as sentiment was also weighed by cuts in japanese automakers' car production following the march 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami that severely disrupted the supply chain.
honda motor co said on monday that its production in japan would return to normal levels within this year, adding that its domestic output until the end of june would be at 50 percent of its original plans. that followed toyota motor corp, the world's biggest automaker, saying on friday that it could take until the end of 2011 before output has fully recovered to levels before the earthquake. until then, toyota's domestic factories will continue to work at volumes equivalent to half of original plans and at an average 40 percent outside japan.
toyota on monday said its vehicle production in japan fell 62.7 percent from a year earlier while its global output fell 29.9 percent year-on-year. "toyota's production plans hurt sentiment on concern that demand from the automobile sector will remain weak until the end of the year," saito said. "an expected end to japan's cap on highway tolls later this year also led to speculation that demand for tyres will drop."
"supply will also increase as producer countries are entering tapping season. buying factors are hard to find under these circumstances," saito said. farmers in thailand and malaysia, the biggest and third-biggest producers, have resumed tapping, but supplies were unlikely to rise sharply as farmers need a couple of weeks to collect latex and manufacture them into standard export-grade rubber sheets.

(Source: http://www.brecorder.com/news/agriculture-and-allied/world/1182284:tokyo-rubber-futures-fall.html?hl=rubber)

Tokyo Futures Ease On Stronger Yen, In Narrow Ranges

Key Tokyo rubber futures eased on Monday (Apr 25) as a stronger yen hurt sentiment, but prices stayed in narrow ranges ahead of Japan's Golden Week holidays.
FUNDAMENTALS
The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for October delivery, which debuted on Monday (Apr 25), stood at 408.5 yen per kg as of 0030 GMT.
The previous benchmark for September delivery was down 1.4 yen at 417.6 yen, after settling Friday (Apr 22) up 1.6 percent or 6.7 yen at 419.0 yen.
Deliveries against the April rubber futures contract, which expired on Friday (Apr 22), were 305 lots or 1,525 tonnes, the smallest amount in four months.
The most-active rubber contract on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange for September delivery rose 270 yuan to settle at 34,780 yuan ($5,355.772) per tonne on Friday (Apr 22).
Oil was up in early trade on Monday (Apr 22), supported by a weak dollar.
The dollar stayed under pressure near a three-year low against a basket of currencies.
(Reuters, April 25, 2011)

Asia Rubber: Tyre grade slips on demand fears; China shy away

SINGAPORE, April 25 — Prices of tyre grade slipped today as rubber futures tumbled on fears about weakening demand from auto makers, while main consumer China turned to cheaper cargo kept in domestic warehouses, dealers said.

Indonesia’s SIR20 grade changed hands late last week at US$4.885 (RM14.655) a kg for June shipment, down from US$5.68 a kg offered last Monday. Malaysia’s SMR20 was traded slightly above $5 as sellers struggled to find consumers.

The physical market bore the brunt of selling on Tokyo and Shanghai rubber futures as sentiment turned bearish after a devastating earthquake hit auto production in Japan, and China tightened the economy.

Toyota Motor Co is set to lose its crown as the world’s largest automaker after Japan’s earthquake and nuclear disaster slashed local output by almost two-thirds in March.

“I think we are lucky if we can still sell rubber at US$5 a kg. We offered rubber at US$4.87 but nothing happened,” said a dealer in Indonesia’s main growing island of Sumatra.

“The market is moving so fast and prices can change from morning to afternoon. Prices in China are already quite low,” he added.

The most active contract on Tokyo Commodity Exchange, currently October 2011 hit in intraday low of ¥395.4 a kg, its weakest since late March — well below a lifetime high around ¥535 struck in February.

Thai’s RSS3 grade, often regarded as a benchmark physical price, has slipped more than 8 per cent since hitting a record at US$6.40 a kg in February to track declines in futures market, although erratic weather in producing countries helped cushion the fall.

There were no deals for RSS3 and another Thai grade, STR20, as Chinese buyers switched to rubber already stored in warehouses on worries that Beijing’s monetary tightening could slash demand.

China’s turbo-charged growth eased just a touch in the first quarter, while its inflation jumped to a 32-month high, putting pressure on the government to do more to rein in prices and keep the economy on an even keel.

Dealers said SIR20 fetched a discount of up to US$100 to the prices quoted by dealers in Southeast Asia, while Thai grades were around US$20 cheaper as overstocked Chinese importers cut prices to attract tyre makers.

Week ahead

Worries about demand were likely to persist in coming weeks, but China could be tempted to buy on dips if domestic inventories kept falling.

Rubber inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.7 per cent to 14,717 tonnes last Friday.

“We will be very happy if we can sell rubber at US$5 today because the market has gone down so much. Rubber in China is cheap and there’s a big discount there,” said a dealer in Singapore. “Prices in China are below US$5 a kg.” — Reuters

(Source: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/business/article/asia-rubber-tyre-grade-slips-on-demand-fears-china-shy-away/)

IRCo's WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT: 18 - 22 April 2011

IRCo's DCP moved downwards and stood at 521.04 US cents/kg on Friday, or down 3.4% from an earlier Friday while rubber futures and physical markets in the region also fell significantly from an earlier Friday due to a downgrade to the U.S. debt outlook by Standard & Poor's and an announcement of the People's Bank of China to raise the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by a half percentage point to 20.5% for large banks on Thursday. However, persistent firm market fundamentals still lent support for cash prices to stay above 500 US cents/kg.

The downgrade to the U.S. debt outlook by S&P's on Monday affected sentiment on global stock markets early in the week, and the latest hike in China's RRR on Thursday also affected Shanghai Composite Index on Friday. Nonetheless, strong U.S. earnings reports from the technology sector and existing home sales in March, partial recoveries of European technology and auto shares, high global commodity prices, especially firm oil and gold prices, and a weakening greenback against the Japanese yen and the euro, including the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah, and Malaysian ringgit, were the major factors that kept global stock markets firm during the week.

(Source: http://www.irco.biz/MarketWise.php)

Acquire foreign land to promote rubber cultivation: IRDF

KOCHI (Commodity Online): Indian Rubber Dealer’s Federation (IRDF) has suggested the India government to acquire land in other countries and encourage rubber cultivation.
China is already having an early bird advantage in this regard. The country, one of the biggest consumers of natural rubber is acquiring plantations in other regions(South East Asia and Africa) with suitable climate to enhance rubber output, Financial Express reported.
Sri Lanka can be a possible destination for India in this regard, IRDF President George Valy, said.
There is limited scope for expansion in rubber cultivation in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and North East. Demand supply-gap in the 2010-11 fiscal stood at 87,255 tons, as compared to 99,165 tons in the previous year.
In January, there were reports that Harrisons Malayalam(HM), India’s largest rubber plantation and top producer of natural rubber was scouting Ethiopia, Cameroon, Ghana and Indonesia for acquiring plantations.
Besides, HM have plans for India’s North Eastern state of Tripura, where the conditions have been proven to be ideal for rubber plantations.

The company already owns 7000 ha in plantations but is producing only half of its total annual capacity of 10,000 tons, reported The Financial Express in November.
HM may opt for a JV or leasing of land to the tune of 10,000 ha, as demand from tyre, latex, sports good and glove manufacturers surge, said the report.
A high level working group of the Government of India last year had given approval for the acquisition of farm lands in foreign countries.
The government is said to have offered full support for Indian companies in this regard.
Arable land in India is shrinking like never before. In 2005, the arable land accounted for 48.83 % of the country. But now, it has shrunk drastically with increasing urbanization.
The idea of farm land outsourcing is not new, given the fact that many major cash-rich economies have started this long before. Over 20 million hectares of land has already been sold, globally as on November 2010.
China, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea top the charts on this account. Japan, a big player, has acquired lands in foreign countries thrice the size of its domestic farm fields!
The only deterrent in this endeavour is the local resistance that may come along with acquisition of farm lands. This trend is very much evident in countries like Mozambique and Madagascar.

(Source: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Acquire-foreign-land-to-promote-rubber-cultivation-IRDF-38419-3-1.html)

Para Rubber Expansion Moves Ahead in Thailand

The Office of the Rubber Replanting Aid Fund (ORRAF) is proceeding with plans to grow 128,000 hectares of para rubber after the cabinet gave the green light to the project last Wednesday (Apr 20).
Its board today will consider terms for the bids to select rubber sapling suppliers for the first 32,000 hectares this year.
The office will pay suppliers 18 baht a sapling, a rate that approved by the National Rubber Policy Committee.
"We'll stick with that payment even though market prices have increased strongly in recent months driven by the boom in rubber cultivation," said Wit Pratuckchai, director-general of the ORRAF, which failed to convince the committee to pay 35 baht a sapling.
The rubber committee chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban instructed the agency to stay at 18 baht, reasoning that sapling prices tend to decline in line with less fluctuating global rubber prices.
Ribbed smoked sheet grade 3 (RSS3) rubber was selling in Songkhla for 163 baht a kilogramme on Friday (Apr 22), down from 173 baht/kg before the long Songkran holiday and much lower than the record high of 192 baht on Feb 17.
The robust rubber trade pushed by strong demand from China's automobile tyre industry has driven the heavy expansion of rubber plantations and driven up sapling prices.
Mr Wit said bids would be accepted from selected suppliers in each region to improve distribution efficiency.
The three-year project is aimed at promoting new rubber sites nationwide. Of the total, 80,000 hectares will be planted in the Northeast, 40,000 hectares in the North and 40,000 hectares combined in the central plains, Eastern Seaboard and the South.
The programme has drawn tremendous interest from planters, with 219,000 applications.
However, only 160,000 planters will be needed for the entire three years and only 13,000 for the first batch of 32,000 hectares.
"We'll finish selecting the planters next month. The ones meeting the criteria will be taken on a first-come, first-served basis," said Mr Wit.
The cabinet last Wednesday instructed the ORRAF to proceed with the first 32,000 hectares, while the remaining rai will have to seek approval from the new government.
The move came after the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) asked the government to delay the project, citing the controversy over a case involving 1.4 billion baht worth of rubber saplings in 2003.
The NACC also questioned the saplings' quality, as many of the ones from the previous programme did not grow well and even died.
However, Mr Wit pointed out that the previous programme had been run by the Agriculture Department and not the ORRAF. He said his agency had more stringent measures in place including tighter bidding methods to ensure sapling quality.
"We're considering an electronic auction to increase our chances of getting good suppliers," said Mr Wit.
He said to ease concerns about growing rubber in reserve forests, planters must bear title documents to show they really own the land, and the site must be in the promoted areas.
Eligible planters must never have owned a rubber plantation before, as the programme is aimed at helping to generate income for new planters.
(Bangkok Post, Thailand, April 25, 2011)

Japan Auto Output Slumps After Quake, Toyota To Lose Crown Toyota

Toyota Motor Co is set to lose its crown as the world's largest automaker after Japan's earthquake and nuclear disaster slashed local output by almost two-thirds in March.
Japan's auto sector has been hit hard by the disaster due to a shortage mostly of electronic and resin-based parts in the wake of the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami, as well as damage to a major nuclear plant which disrupted power supplies.
Toyota said last week it could take until the end of the year before production fully recovered.
The world's largest automaker said domestic production fell 62.7 percent to 129,491 units in March, while Japan's No.2 Nissan Motor Co said its corresponding figure fell 52.4 percent to 47,590 units.
Honda Motor Co said domestic production shrank 62.9 percent to 34,754 vehicles.
Toyota is now almost certain to lose the top producer ranking it has held since 2008 to General Motors this year. Toyota sold 8.42 million vehicles last year, topping GM's 8.39 million.
Koji Endo, managing director of Advanced Research Japan in Tokyo, said Toyota was now on track to post sales of around 6.5 million units this year.
"Most likely GM will produce 8 million-plus and Volkswagon will produce around 7 million, so most likely Toyota will be third, GM will be first," Endo said.
Toyota, criticised by some analysts and investors for its aggressive expansion in the early 2000s, played down the prospect of losing its top ranking.
"When Toyota became No. 1 there were no champagne corks going off here," said Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco. The March sales were the worst since records began in 1988, he added
Japanese automakers have not forecast what impact the production cuts will have on earnings, but analysts have been slashing their forecasts since the disaster.
"In overseas markets consumers have choices and (non-Japanese makers) probably will take some share, but I think it is an open question if those will be sustainable or temporary share changes -- my guess is that they will tend to be temporary," said Christopher Richter, an auto analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Tokyo.
"Probably the negative news is in the share prices and it is just a matter of time before some of this positive news starts to get imputed into share prices."
Shares in the major automakers were slightly weaker on Monday (Apr 25), with Toyota down 0.5 percent, Honda down 1.3 percent and Nissan 1.7 percent lower.
Tokyo's transport equipment sub-index has bounced about 14 percent from its post-quake low, but is still more than 6 percent below where it was before the disaster struck.
In contrast, South Korea's Hyundai Motors has surged 30 percent over the same period, hitting a record high last week on expectations it will benefit from the woes of its Japanese rivals.
"These are good times for South Korean carmakers. They will gain market share, raise utilization rates," said Park Jong-min, a fund manager at ING Investment Management in Seoul. "They will also reduce incentives, which will help cut costs."
The disaster has been a major setback for the world's third-largest economy, with exports falling faster than forecast in March and industrial output data due on Thursday (Apr 28) expected to show a record decline. Some economists expect industrial production to fall as much as a quarter, month-on-month, in March.
Uncertainty on the earnings outlook is likely to linger well into the financial year which started on April 1. Many companies are expected to refrain from giving 2012 earnings guidance during the current fourth quarter reporting season and those that do are expected to paint a bleak picture.
"One source of concern is that analysts have not cut their estimates for the current year by very much," said Koji Toda, chief fund manager at Resona Bank in Tokyo. "I think many are leaving their figures unchanged because they don't have enough information to decide how far to cut them."
For Toyota, 11 analysts who revised their forecasts after the earthquake forecast an average operating profit of 281.9 billion yen for the year to March 2012.
That is down 65 percent from the consensus of 804 billion yen from 21 analysts before the quake, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Toyota announces its results on May 11, but it is not certain if it will provide its own forecast.
(Reuters, April 25, 2011)

India should follow China to enhance rubber output

New Delhi, Apr 24 (PTI) The domestic rubber industry has suggested the government to expand the country''s rubber output by following the Chinese model of acquiring land in other countries for plantation.

"We have recommended the government to follow China for expansion in rubber production. China has recently been acquiring land in other countries to undertake rubber plantation to meet its growing demand," Indian Rubber Dealers Federation (IRDF) President George Valy told PTI.

India should study the Chinese model of rubber expansion (in Southeast Asia and Africa) as the former is also facing the problem of limited land resources for rubber plantation, he said.

According to IRDF, "Sri Lanka can be a possible destination for acquiring plantations due to its proximity, favourable climate and un-tapped potential."

Echoing similar views, South-based rubber producers said that there is limited scope to expand rubber plantation in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu and North East. "So, foreign location is a viable option," they suggested.

The proposal emerged during the recent consultative workshop on the rubber sector organised by the Commerce Ministry for taking views of the domestic rubber industry for designing a rubber policy for the 12th Five Year Plan.

Besides IRDF, All India Rubber Industry Association and Automotive Tyre Manufacturers'' Association (ATMA) were among others present in the workshop.

The industry bodies said the domestic rubber availability is a matter of concern as the demand-supply gap is widening.

"In the medium to long-term, prospects of availability of natural rubber is a concern and it is about time that the government should look for options abroad," an ATMA official said, adding that the gap is expected to rise this fiscal in view of rising demand from the automobile sector.

According to official data, the demand supply-gap in the 2010-11 fiscal was 87,255 tonnes, as compared to 99,165 tonnes in the previous year.

By 2020, the demand and supply gap is expected to widen by 3-5 lakh tonnes considering the current pace of development in automobile and other rubber users industry.

The domestic production of natural rubber is 8,61,950 tonnes FY''11, as against the demand of 9,49,205 tonnes in the same period.

(Source: http://in.news.yahoo.com/india-china-enhance-rubber-output-industry-060000233.html)

India: Spot rubber remains steady

KOTTAYAM, APRIL 23:

Spot rubber was steady on Saturday. The market continued to be in a holiday mood prior to Easter.

Sheet rubber finished unchanged at Rs 240 a kg amidst scattered transactions.

The volumes were extremely dull as most of the traders had been on long holidays.

FUTURES IMPROVE

The May series improved to Rs 244.87 (243.68), June to Rs 249.74 (248.14), July to Rs 250.45 (248.55), August to Rs 242 (241) and September to Rs 233.05 (232.50) a kg for RSS 4 on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147).

(Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/commodities/article1761559.ece)

Rubber rises as China, India demand may exceed supplies

Rubber, set for a second weekly decline, climbed on concerns that demand may outpace supply during the low-production season in Southeast Asia.

The September-delivery contract advanced as much as 3.1% to 425 yen per kg ($5,200 a tonne) and traded at 421.2 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 10:43 am Futures are set for a 3.1% decline this week.

“Rubber demand from China and India is still high, while supply remains low in the short term,” said Masahiro Tamagawa, senior manager at HS Futures. Prices are in so-called backwardation, when nearby contracts are more expensive than long-term ones, he said.

Consumption in China, the largest buyer, is expected to grow by 6% this year to 3.5 million tonne, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a March report. India’s demand may rise 5% to 991,000 tonne, it said.

Michelin & Cie., the world’s second-largest tire maker, said first-quarter revenue rose 28% 5.05 billion euros ($7.36 billion), led by surging demand for speciality tires to equip construction equipment and agricultural vehicles.

Thai output may decline from last year if rains that caused floods persist, according to the Thai Rubber Association. Production may be 3.2 million tonne this year, Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group, said April 21. That compares with last year’s 3.25 million tonne and an earlier 2011 target of 3.49 million tonne.

Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March that may have damaged about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.

Farmers in Thailand , Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping during so-called wintering, from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

The physical price of Thai rubber was unchanged at 177.05 baht ($5.90) per kg on Thursday, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.

Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai advanced as much as 2% to 35,195 yuan ($5,420) a tonne before trading at 35,135 yuan at 09:09 am local time.

(Source: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/rubber-rises-as-china-india-demand-may-exceed-supplies/780059/0)

Thailand Rubber F.O.B. Price: April 22, 2011

(Source: http://vnb-blog.blogspot.com/2011/04/thailand-rubber-price-22042011.html)

Rubber mart to remain quiet next week

The Malaysian rubber market is likely to remain quiet next week as some players are expected to stay on the sidelines and await further drop in prices, dealers said.
However, they said the market's underlying fundamentals remained intact due to the tight supply in major producing countries.
During the week just-ended, local rubber prices eased amid a lack of strong buying.
The rubber market was closed on Friday due to the Good Friday celebration.

On a Friday-to-Thursday basis, the Malaysian Rubber Board's official daily physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 declined 59.0 sen to 1,478 per kg from 1,537.0 last Friday and latex-in-bulk eased 35.5 sen to 1,029.0 sen per kg from to 1,064.5 sen per kg previously.
Meanwhile, MRB's unofficial price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 62.5 sen to 1,470.0 sen per kg from to 1,532.5 sen per kg last Friday and latex-in-bulk slipped 35.5 sen to 1,025.0 sen per kg from 1,060.5 sen per kg previously. – Bernama
(Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/articles/20110423115350/Article/)

Rubber board estimates 2011-12 consumption at 9.77 lakh tn

New Delhi, Apr 22 (PTI) Natural rubber consumption is expected to increase to 9.77 lakh tonnes in the 2011-12 fiscal, around three per cent increase from the last fiscal, as a result of growing demand from the automobile sector, Rubber Board Chairman Sheela Thomas said.

India had consumed 9.49 lakh tonnes of natural rubber in the previous fiscal largely on back of growth in tyre production in the automobile sector, which grew by 23 per cent.

"The consumption is definitely increasing with growth in the automobile sector and in the 2011-12 period we are expecting an increase in demand from tyre manufacturing industry," Indian Rubber Dealers Federation President George Valy told PTI.

The natural rubber production for 2011-12 is being anticipated at 9.02 lakhs tonnes, Thomas added.

According to the International Rubber Study Group, global rubber demand is likely to rise by 4.6 per cent to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 and by 3.8 per cent to 27.5 million tonnes in 2012.

(Source: http://in.news.yahoo.com/rubber-board-estimates-2011-12-consumption-9-77-125300774.html)

Rubber Futures in Tokyo Advance as China, India Demand May Exceed Supplies

Rubber, set for a second weekly decline, climbed on concerns that demand may outpace supply during the low-production season in Southeast Asia.

The September-delivery contract advanced as much as 3.1 percent to 425 yen per kilogram ($5,200 a metric ton) and traded at 421.2 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 10:43 a.m. Futures are set for a 3.1 percent decline this week.

“Rubber demand from China and India is still high, while supply remains low in the short term,” said Masahiro Tamagawa, senior manager at H.S. Futures Co. Prices are in so-called backwardation, when nearby contracts are more expensive than long-term ones, he said.

Consumption in China, the largest buyer, is expected to grow by 6 percent this year to 3.5 million tons, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a March report. India’s demand may rise 5 percent to 991,000 tons, it said.

Michelin & Cie., the world’s second-largest tire maker, said first-quarter revenue rose 28 percent 5.05 billion euros ($7.36 billion), led by surging demand for speciality tires to equip construction equipment and agricultural vehicles.

Thai output may decline from last year if rains that caused floods persist, according to the Thai Rubber Association. Production may be 3.2 million tons this year, Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group, said April 21. That compares with last year’s 3.25 million tons and an earlier 2011 target of 3.49 million tons.

Thai Output

Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March that may have damaged about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.

Farmers in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia reduce tapping during so-called wintering, from February to May, when trees shed leaves and latex production drops, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

The physical price of Thai rubber was unchanged at 177.05 baht ($5.90) per kilogram yesterday, according to the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand.

Rubber for September delivery in Shanghai advanced as much as 2 percent to 35,195 yuan ($5,420) a ton before trading at 35,135 yuan at 09:09 a.m. local time.

(Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-22/rubber-futures-in-tokyo-advance-as-china-india-demand-may-exceed-supplies.html)

IRC Set To Tap Fast-Spinning Tyre Market in Thailand

Inoue Rubber (Thailand) Plc forecasts a healthier outlook for the local motorcycle-tyre replacement market this year, in line with the growth of the motorcycle market due to the economic recovery, higher crop prices and new model launches.
However, some risk factors such as volatile raw material costs and natural disasters abroad and at home, especially the devastating floods in the southern part of Thailand and the earthquake in Japan, will have an impact in the short and medium terms, said president Pimjai Laochinda.
The factories in Japan damaged by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami last month are being rehabilitated rapidly so that the projected harmful effects on production and marketing in the Thai market will be minimised, she said.SET-listed Inoue Rubber, which manufactures elastomer parts, motorcycle tyres, motorcycle tubes and wheel set assemblies under the IRC brand, aims to increase its sales by 5% in its financial year ending Sept 30, in line with the 5% growth projection of the motorcycle market to 1.8 million units this year.
Sales last year grew 18% year-on-year to 5.5 billion baht. The better-than-expected growth was due mainly to the steady launches of new tyres, the result of the company's active research and development of its products, said Ms Pimjai.
The Thai-Japanese Inoue Rubber recently launched IZR, a new model of IRC motorcycle tyres, targeting high-end customers.
The new model is produced for all types of four-stroke engine motorcycles, ranging from the family type to the 250cc big bike model.
"Over the past 40 years, the company has gathered experience and relevant information. The IZR model has been produced to satisfy consumers' needs, especially those looking for higher-performance tyres," said Ms Pimjai.
Inoue Rubber has two production facilities, one in Ayutthaya and the other in Pathum Thani, making on-road, off-road, scooter and heavy-duty tyres.
Inoue Rubber posted net profit of 50.43 million baht in the first quarter ending Dec 31, 2010, a 52.1% year-on-year decrease, because of an 18.96% surge in raw material costs, especially the prices of natural and synthetic rubber. Natural rubber prices in the first quarter rose 51% year-on-year to an average of 128.27 baht a kilogramme.
(Bangkok Post, Thailand, Apr 21, 2011)

Tokyo Futures Fall 3% on Fund Selling

Tokyo rubber futures ended down 3 percent on Thursday (April 21) on selling by funds but firmer oil prices helped prices bounce off lows to finish above support at 400 yen, dealers said.
The benchmark rubber contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange fell 13.6 yen to settle at 412.3 yen ($5.000) per kg. It fell as much as 3.4 percent to an intra-day low of 411.3 yen.
The most-active rubber contract on the Shanghai commodities exchange for September delivery fell 365 yuan to settle at 34,510 yuan per tonne.
"Funds liquidated contracts heavily after prices failed to break above 440 yen. But I think TOCOM prices were still finding support as they settled above 400 yen level," said a Tokyo-based dealer.
Brent crude climbed above $124 a barrel on Thursday (April 21) as U.S. crude inventories fell unexpectedly last week and a sharply weaker dollar triggered a rush into riskier assets.
Dealers said other factors such as strong earnings and firm U.S. stock market also helped support TOCOM prices.
Big earnings surprises lifted investor sentiment on Wednesday, propelling U.S. stocks to their best day in a month and lifting the Dow industrials to their highest in almost three years.
TOCOM rubber was expected to rebound on Friday after the benchmark price found support at 400-410 yen, dealers said.
(Reuters, Bangkok, April 21, 2011)

Malaysia: Rubber glove industry faces demand shift

KUCHING: The aggressive expansion plans of the rubber gloves’ nitrile segment could lead to average selling price weakness in the short term before demand from emerging markets catches up.

DEMAND SHIFT: While global glove demand is growing at a moderate rate of eight per cent to 10 per cent per annum, it is believed that nitrile glove demand will grow at a higher rate, taking market share away from latex gloves.

In a desperate move to retain its customer base, latex-focused original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) were frantically expanding their nitrile production, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd analyst Lee Yen Ling in a research note yesterday.

At the Invest Malaysia 2011 Conference last week, Top Glove Corporation Bhd concurred with the analyst’s view that pricing was still the key determinant of glove sales. It also indicated its plan to have 50 per cent nitrile in its product mix, within a four to five years time frame.

In 2011, the top seven, namely Top Glove, Supermax Corporation Bhd, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd, Hartalega Holdings Bhd, Latexx Partners Bhd, Adventa Bhd and YTY Industry Sdn Bhd, which control around 55 per cent of the world examination gloves market, were scheduled to lift their new capacity by an estimated 17 billion pieces and almost all were earmarked for nitrile production.

This represented a supply surplus of six billion pieces of gloves in 2011, on the assumption that global demand grows by eight per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) this year, said the analyst. “Nevertheless, we believe the overall supply overhang is in the latex glove segment rather than nitrile, given the robust growth of nitrile glove demand.”

While global glove demand was growing at a moderate rate of eight per cent to 10 per cent per annum, it was believed that nitrile glove demand would grow at a robust rate, taking market share away from latex gloves.

“In fact, Hartalega expects nitrile glove demand to grow strongly at 30 per cent per annum, given the pricing disparity and the switch to nitrile gloves is aggressive in the developed markets such as the US and Europe,” Lee pointed out. “Demand from emerging markets could rise exponentially when nitrile OEMs start creating awareness of nitrile gloves and penetrate the market this year.”

On the financial front, after the V-shaped recovery in March 2011, natural rubber latex (NR) price had remained at high levels. However, there was some sign of abating with prices closing lower each day since a week ago. NR price had fallen by six per cent in one week, but was still 37 per cent higher y-o-y.

“This is in line with our expectation that NR price may fall as the ‘wintering season’ of the rubber trees typically ends in May. We have assumed a 20 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) drop in NR latex cost for the third quarter of 2011,” Lee opined.

Meanwhile, nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) price had risen to US$1.65 per kilogramme in April 2011 due to rubber consumers’ unwarranted switch from NR to NBR. “We think the consumption pattern may revert once NR price falls in May, barring any jump in crude oil prices.”

“Nevertheless, we estimate that for the nitrile-latex glove pricing disparity to disappear, NBR price will need to increase by 50 per cent,” she added.

Based on the given factors, the research firm stated predominant nitrile glove producers like Hartalega would continuously show stronger q-o-q results while latex glove producers such as Top Glove would continue to post lackluster numbers.

In relation to that, it expected Hartalega to deliver a six per cent sequential earnings growth in the fourth quarter of financial year 2011 on higher sales volume. On the other hand, Kossan might post 10 per cent weaker sequential earnings in its first quarter results due to lower seasonal demand for latex gloves.

“We think Hartalega has the potential to trade up to Top Glove’s current valuation given the promising prospects for nitrile gloves, compared with the long-term negative outlook for latex gloves,” said Lee.

Maybank Investment pegged Hartalega target price at RM6.80 per share and Kossan at RM3.60 per share, while Top Glove was at RM5.10 per share.

(Source: http://www.theborneopost.com/?p=124979)

Tokyo rubber futures up

Tokyo  (april 22, 2011) : key tokyo rubber futures rose 2.3 percent in early morning trade on thursday as big earnings surprises in the wall street boosted hopes for a sustained global economic recovery and pushed up oil prices. the key tokyo commodity exchange rubber contract for september delivery was up 10 yen at 435.9 yen per kg as of 0006 gmt. the most-active shanghai rubber contract for september delivery also rose 1,005 yuan to settle at 34,875 yuan ($5,340.409) per tonne on thursday.
thailand, the world's biggest rubber producer and exporter, should produce 3.46 million tonnes of rubber this year, down one percent from a january forecast due to heavy floods. indonesian tyre grade sir20 rubber stored in chinese warehouses was sold at $100 below spot prices quoted in southeast asia.

(Source: http://www.brecorder.com/news/agriculture-and-allied/world/1180992%3Atokyo-rubber-futures-up.html?hl=rubber)

Rubber output may dip, tyres to be expensive

Rubber production in Thailand, the world’s largest grower and exporter, may decline for the first time in four years if rain persists across key plantations in the country’s south, according to the Thai Rubber Association.

Output may fall to 3.2 million tonnes this year, down from an earlier estimate of 3.49 million tonnes, said Luckchai Kittipol, president of the group. Production last year totaled 3.25 million tonnes, according to the group. That would be the first annual decline since 2007.

Lower output from Thailand, which accounts for 30 per cent of global supply, would mean less raw material for tyre companies such as Bridgestone Corp, Michelin & Cie. and Goodyear Tyre & Rubber Co, the top three tyre makers, potentially increasing their costs.

“Obviously, this would drive rubber prices higher and will increase production costs for tyre companies, especially truck tyre makers as they use massive volumes of rubber,” Niels Fehre, an analyst at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, said by phone on Thursday from Dusseldorf.

Unseasonal rain from the start of the year caused by a La Nina weather pattern boosted Thailand’s sugar output to record levels, while inundating rubber plantations in the south. Rains may have cut rubber output by 30,000 tonnes in the second quarter, Luckchai said. Futures of the commodity used in tyres and gloves have climbed 27 per cent in the past year.

‘HURTING PRODUCTION’
“Floods in southern Thailand have been hurting rubber production,” Luckchai said on Thursday in a phone interview.

The loss forecast was 50 per cent higher than an initial estimate on March 30. “We have to continue monitoring the weather to see how bad it will affect rubber output this year,” he said.

Thai production may total 3.43 million tonnes this year from 3.25 million tonnes last year, the Kuala Lumpur-based Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in a March report. The September-delivery contract declined 3.2 per cent to settle at 412.3 yen a kg ($5,024 a tonne) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

Unseasonal rains from the start of this year in Thailand caused floods in 10 southern provinces in March and may damage about 50,000 rai (19,641 acres) of rubber plantations, according to the Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation. Water levels have since receded, it said.

Fourteen provinces in Thai south account for 80 per cent of the country’s output, according to the Office of Agricultural Economics.

(Source: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/rubber-output-may-dip-tyres-to-be-expensive/433077/)

India: Sheet rubber ends flat

KOTTAYAM, APRIL 21:

Spot rubber closed unchanged on Thursday. Traders were in a holiday mood, it being Maundy Thursday. According to observers, the market is likely to remain range-bound till Monday, and it would remain closed on the 22nd owing to Good Friday. The volumes were dull.

Sheet rubber finished flat at Rs 240 a kg amid scattered transactions. The grade was steady at Rs 239 a kg both at Kottayam and Kochi, as reported by the Rubber Board.

In futures, the May series closed at Rs 243.75 (Rs 244.61), June at Rs 248.59 (Rs 248.78), July at Rs 249 (Rs 249.58), August at Rs 241 (Rs 242.90), September at Rs 233.80 (Rs 232.65) and October at Rs 232.50 (Rs 233) a kg for RSS-4 on the National Multi-Commodity Exchange.

The volumes totalled 6,018 lots and open interest 7,113 lots. The turnover was Rs 146.99 crores.

RSS-3 (spot) slipped to Rs 262.16 (Rs 263.02) a kg at Bangkok. The April futures for the grade weakened to ¥445 (Rs 240.48) from ¥454.9 a kg during the day session, but recovered partially to ¥452 (Rs 244.26) in the night session on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 240 (240); RSS-5: 236 (236); ungraded: 222 (222); ISNR 20: 233 (233) and latex 60 per cent: 147 (147).

(Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article1715789.ece)