Deutsche Securities slashed its forecast for Toyota Motor Corp's operating profit for next business year by 84 percent and cut its forecasts for other Japanese automakers assuming a prolonged production suspension after Japan's biggest earthquake on record.
In a note to clients, Deutsche's Tokyo-based auto analyst, Kurt Sanger, stressed that uncertainty over the depth and duration of the supply disruption meant "we will surely be wrong in our absolute figures."
"Ultimately this is a definable problem with a solution and should be one that the market can look beyond. We expect near-term volatility but we do not see permanent impairment to corporate value," he wrote. Forecasts for the 2012/13 April-March business year were only slightly lowered.
Sanger said he was basing his assumptions on a return to normal production after six months, with energy shortages presenting challenges on top of a broad disruption to the supply chain.
All Japanese automakers have suspended or slowed vehicle and parts production since the March 11 earthquake off Japan's northeastern coast caused hundreds of suppliers' factories to shut down.
Below are Deutsche Securities' forecasts for operating and net earnings, in billions of yen. The companies' business year runs from April 1 to March 31.
Toyota Motor Corp
Nissan Motor Co 
Honda Motor Co
Suzuki Motor Corp
Mazda Motor Corp 
Fuji Heavy Industries (Subaru)
(Reuters, March 28, 2011)
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