La Nina Event May Be Near Peak, Last Into 2011, Australian Bureau Predicts

A La Nina weather event, which has brought heavier-than-usual rainfall to parts of Asia and dry weather to Argentina and Brazil, remains moderate-to-strong and may be peaking, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, a La Nina indicator, were significantly cooler than average for this time of year, the bureau said on its website today. Air-pressure differences measured by the so-called southern oscillation index, another sign of the event, equaled record October levels, it said.

La Nina-linked rains have deluged estates and mines in Southeast Asia, helping drive rubber to a 30-year high, curbing tin output in Indonesia and flooding rice fields from Vietnam to the Philippines. In South America, dry weather caused by La Nina may hurt Argentine corn and soybeans, ETF Securities has said.

“We are either somewhere near the peak, or it may be another month or two before we see the peak,” Andrew Watkins, manager of climate prediction at the Melbourne-based bureau, said by phone today. “There isn’t a strong chance it will weaken off from we are now for the next month or so.”

The event, which has strengthened since September, has contributed to Australia’s wettest August-to-October period on record and may cause more cyclones this season near the Queensland coast, according to the bureau. Queensland Sugar Ltd., Australia’s largest shipper, cut its shipment forecast today on the wet weather, saying nationwide exports may slump 20 percent.

‘Event Will Persist’

“Long-range models surveyed by the bureau suggest that this La Nina event will persist into at least early 2011,” the bureau said.

Rubber in Thailand may reach an all-time high this year after floods in the south, Supachai Phosu, deputy minister of agriculture, said yesterday. Yen-denominated futures in Tokyo have gained 34 percent this year to the highest level since 1980.

La Ninas occur on average every three to five years and can last nine to 12 months, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The event can also intensify hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean.

Rainfall in Malaysia, the second-largest palm-oil producer, may be as much as 40 percent above normal this month and in December as the La Nina strengthens, the nation’s forecaster has said. Palm oil traded today at the highest level in more than two years in Kuala Lumpur.

(bloomberg.com)