Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Decline in spot rubber prices

On Tuesday (31 August 2010), the domestic rubber prices declined further following the declines in the domestic and international rubber futures. Sheet rubber declined to Rs 165 from Rs 167 per kg on buyer resistance.

The September futures for RSS 4 declined to Rs 166.29 (168.17), October to Rs 163.16 (164.17), November to Rs 162.50 (163.56) and December to Rs 163.36 (164.31) per kg on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 165 (167); RSS-5: 161 (162.50); ungraded: 155 (156); ISNR 20: 149 (150) and latex 60 per cent: 113 (113).

(indiainfoline.com)

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Rubber Tops 300 Yen for First Time in Four Months as BOJ Prepares to Act

Rubber climbed for a third day, topping 300 yen per kilogram for the first time since April, as Japan’s central bank prepares to act to stem the yen’s rally and support the nation’s export-led economic recovery.

Futures in Tokyo gained as much as 1 percent to 302 yen a kilogram ($1,166 a metric ton), the highest level since April 30, extending last week’s 2.7 percent increase.

The Bank of Japan is holding an emergency board meeting today as the yen’s surge to a 15-year high forces policy makers to find ways to support the nation’s slowing expansion. The move follows signs the U.S. is also open to further monetary stimulus, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke saying three days ago that he has the tools to prevent another recession.

“U.S. and Japanese authorities are preparing to take additional measures to support economic growth, which are positive for raw-material demand,” Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at JSC Corp. in Tokyo, said today by phone.

The February-delivery contract gained 0.7 percent to 301 yen at 11:02 a.m. on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The price has increased 9 percent this year.

The Japanese currency slipped against the dollar amid speculation the Bank of Japan will step up injections of liquidity to sustain a weakening recovery, boosting the appeal of yen-denominated contracts.

The yen dropped to 85.77 per dollar as of 10:30 a.m. in Tokyo from 85.22 yen in New York. It surged to 83.60 per dollar on Aug. 24, the strongest level since June 1995.

The central bank will probably expand its 20 trillion yen bank-loan program and extend the term for the credit from three months, said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will speak to reporters about the central bank’s decision at 2:30 p.m. in Tokyo today.

January-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 1.3 percent to 25,960 yuan ($3,816) a ton at 10:07 a.m. local time. China’s inventories shrank for the first week in five, dropping by 32 tons to 24,701 tons, the exchange said on Aug. 27, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin.

(bloomberg.com)

IRCo's WEEKLY MARKET SNAPSHOT: 23 - 27 August 2010

IRCo's DCP recorded another gain of 7.26 US cents/kg. in another robust week especially in the futures market whilst firm fundamentals continued in the physical market on tight supplies, low stocks and steady demand.

Equity markets were still in the negative except for the last day of the week when sentiments turned around on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's assurance of support for an economic recovery and crude oil prices recovered mid-week from a low of US $ 71.63 per barrel on Tuesday.

Except for the Thai baht, the other regional currencies eased slightly against the greenback. The Japanese yen fell below 85 yen to the dollar on Tuesday and eased a little for the rest of the week but still hovering below the 85 yen level.

(Irco.biz)

Spot rubber ends weak

On Saturday (28 August 2010), the spot rubber prices ended weak due to technical and fundamental reasons and most of the traders seemed to be fearing further fall in prices. Sheet rubber declined to Rs 168 from Rs 170 per kg on buyer resistance.

The September futures for RSS 4 declined to Rs 168.44 (168.77), October to Rs 164.58 (164.86), November to Rs 163.45 (164.01) and December to Rs 164 (164.11) per kg on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 168 (170); RSS-5: 162.50 (164); ungraded: 156 (159.50); ISNR 20: 150 (150) and latex 60 per cent: 113 (113).

(indiainfoline.com)

Friday, August 27, 2010

Rubber Gains to Four-Month High as Japan Car Sales Improve Demand Outlook


Rubber gained for a second day, climbing to the highest level since April 30, as expanding car sales in Japan raised speculation that demand for the commodity used to make tires may increase.
Futures climbed as much as 1.7 percent, heading for a second weekly increase, after the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan’s new car sales from Aug. 1 to Aug. 23 surged by 73 percent from the same period last year to more than 149,000.
Sales increased as consumers sought to benefit from a government subsidy program for fuel-efficient cars, which is scheduled to finish at the end of September, said Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at Tokyo-based broker Fujitomi Co. Demand for rubber and other raw materials used in cars may be sustained at least until the program expires, he said.
“Consumers are advancing car purchases to take advantage of the subsidy program, which appears to have had a positive impact on raw-material demand,” Saito said today by phone.
The February-delivery contract rose to as high as 298.9 yen per kilogram ($3,538 a metric ton) before trading at 298.8 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 1:35 p.m.
Gains in futures were limited as Asian stocks declined, curbing investor appetite for riskier assets, Saito said. Equities and crude oil dropped amid speculation that the U.S. government will cut its estimate for second-quarter growth.
U.S. Outlook
A U.S. report today will show gross domestic product grew 1.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with the 2.4 percent the government estimated last month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
Bernanke will discuss the outlook for the economy and possible policy responses tomorrow at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Cash rubber prices in Thailand, the largest producer, climbed 0.8 percent to 105.6 baht ($3.36) per kilogram, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said yesterday. The gain was driven by demand from rubber processors and limited supply availability, it said.
Heavy rainfall is likely across Thailand until the end of August, according to the Thai Meteorological Department. Rain disrupts tapping rubber trees, leading to output declines.
January-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 0.3 percent to 25,435 yuan ($3,741) a ton at the 11:30 a.m. local-time trading break.
(bloomberg.com)

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Rubber Futures Jump as China's Physical Demand, Weaker Yen Boost Appeal

Rubber climbed for the first time in five days as buying demand from China, a weaker Japanese currency and crude oil gains enhanced the appeal of the commodity used to make tires.

Rubber futures surged as much as 2.8 percent after retreating to one-week low yesterday. The January-delivery contract gained as much as 7.9 yen to 294.2 yen per kilogram ($3,475 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, before trading at 293.7 yen at 11:17 a.m.

“Physical buying coming from China gives the strength to the market,” Felix Yeo, trading manager at the Singapore unit of Marubeni Corp., said by phone today. Rising oil prices and a weakening yen also provide the support, he said.

The Japanese currency weakened for a second day against the dollar and the euro amid speculation policy makers will take measures to curb an advance. The yen fell to 84.89 per dollar in Asia, from 84.58 in New York yesterday.

Crude oil rose for a second day as U.S. equities climbed yesterday after a report that sales of new homes dropped in July to the lowest level on record. Rising oil prices improve rubber’s competitiveness against its synthetic rival.

China’s natural rubber inventories expanded for a fourth week, growing by 2,858 tons to 24,733 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said Aug. 20.

The country is expected to import 135,000 tons of natural rubber in August and another 130,000 tons in September, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries said in its newsletter this month. China’s gross imports this year may rise 5 percent to 1.67 million tons, the association said.

Rains Disrupt

“Thailand and Malaysia have been affected by some rains, raising supply concern,” Yeo said from Singapore. Rainfall disrupts tapping, lowering rubber output.

Heavy rainfall is likely across Thailand until the end of August, the Thai Meteorological Department said on its website.

In the cash market, Thai rubber prices fell 0.7 percent to 104.8 baht ($3.33) per kilogram yesterday, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said on its website. Supply availability remains limited because of persistent rainfall in rubber plantation areas, it said yesterday.

January-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced 1.6 percent to 25,235 yuan ($3,710) a ton.

(bloomberg.com)

China's NR Imports in July

By Siwaporn Bumroongpan

China’s NR imports in July grew 28% from 115,752 tons in June to 147,902 tons, according to the General Administration of Customs.

The July import, however, was 11% less compared with the same month last year. For the January-July period, China imported 983,996 tons of NR, down 1% compared with the same period last year.

(Irco.biz)

Govt to retain duty on imports - Rubber Board

MUMBAI (Reuters) – The government will not cut import duty on natural rubber imports, Trade Minister Anand Sharma told to a group of ministers from Kerala in a meeting on Wednesday, Rubber Board chairman Sajen Peter, said in a statement.

Kerala is the biggest rubber-producing state in the country.

Peter, who attended the meeting, said the minister has assured the delegation that the twenty percent import duty would stay and if the government decides to cut the duty it will implement the recommendations of expert panel constituted under the directive of Delhi High Court.

The panel had recommended that the import duty be retained at 20 per cent, but a maximum ceiling of 20.46 rupees be fixed, which is based on the average domestic price of rubber for the last three fiscals.

Rubber consumers have been demanding lower tax on imports after domestic prices jumped on robust demand from tyre industry and the gap between local and international prices widened.

(in.reuters.com)

Monday, August 23, 2010

Rubber Declines for Third Day on Stronger Yen, Economic Growth Concerns

Rubber dropped for a third day as a stronger Japanese currency cut the appeal of yen-based contracts and on concern that the global economy is slowing.

Futures in Tokyo decreased as much as 1.2 percent, extending a retreat from a three-month high of 295.2 yen per kilogram ($3,474 per metric ton) reached on Aug. 20.

The yen advanced against most major counterparts before data this week forecast to show the U.S. housing market slowed and German business confidence fell. Rubber futures also weakened as oil decreased for a fifth day, cutting the cost of making rival synthetic products used in tires.

“The market stayed under pressure as risk appetite from investors waned because of concerns about the economy,” Shuji Sugata, research manager at Mitsubishi Corp. Futures Ltd. in Tokyo, said today by phone.

January-delivery rubber lost as much as 3.5 yen to 285.8 yen per kilogram before trading at 288.3 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 11:46 a.m.

The yen advanced to 85.03 per dollar from 85.16. Japan’s currency touched 84.73 per dollar on Aug. 11, the highest since July 1995, on demand for safer assets.

Sales of existing U.S. homes dropped 13 percent to a 4.65 million annual rate in July, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of the National Association of Realtors report today. U.S. new home sales held at an annual pace of 330,000 in July, according to another Bloomberg survey before tomorrow’s data.

‘Double-Dip’ Concern

“Even though we don’t think the U.S. is moving into a recession, there are concerns about a double dip,” said Kenji Sekiguchi, general manager of strategic research and investment at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co.

In the cash market, Thai rubber prices were unchanged at 105.5 baht ($3.35) per kilogram, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said on its website yesterday.

The market is supported by concern that rains in southern Thailand, the largest producer, may disrupt tapping and curb supply, Sugata said.

Heavy rainfall is expected across Thailand this week as tropical storm Mindulle has developed, according to the Thai Meteorological Department.

January-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost 1.4 percent to 24,750 yuan ($3,639) a ton at 10:50 a.m. local time.

(bloomberg.com)

Europe Commodity Day Ahead: Rice Futures May Advance on Discount to Wheat


The following are the top stories on metals, agriculture and shipping.
ECONOMIC EVENTS, AGRICULTURE REPORTS:
Forecast  Prior     Time
(Local)
France Manufacturing PMI (AUG) 53.4 53.9 9:00
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (AUG) 56.1 56.7 9:00
Germany Manufacturing PMI (AUG) 60.5 61.2 9:30
Chicago Fed Nat Activity (JUL) -0.10 -0.63 8:30
U.S. Corn Inspections (Weekly) 31.13 11:00
U.S. Corn Condition (Weekly) 69% 16:00

METALS PRICES: ($/ton)
Last % Chg RSI
Copper 7,255 -0.7 54
Aluminum 2,040 -1.3 41
Zinc 2,058 -1.5 54
Lead 2,056 -2.3 51
Nickel 21,550 -1.1 54
Tin 20,650 -2.1 58

OTHER MARKETS:
Last % Chg % YTD
U.S. Dollar Index 83.024 +0.7 +5.9
Crude Oil $73.46 -1.3 +1.3
Gold $1,227.8 -0.4 +31
MSCI World Index 1,093.77 -1.2 +2.9
COMMODITY EXCLUSIVES:
Rice Climbing in Widest Discount to Wheat Since 2008
Rice, this year’s worst-performing grain, is set to rally as consumers and investors seek alternatives to wheat after heat waves, wildfires and floods ruined crops across the Northern Hemisphere.
Aluminum Surplus Seen More Than Expected in 2010, Sumitomo Says
Global aluminum production may outstrip demand this year by more than expected because of expansion led by China, the world’s biggest supplier and consumer, Japan’s third-largest trading house said.
Potash Corp. Said to Get Sinochem, Vale’s Inquiries
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. was contacted by China’s Sinochem Group and Brazil’s Vale SA as the company tries to fend off a hostile takeover from BHP Billiton Ltd., said a person with knowledge of the matter.
PRECIOUS METALS:
Gold Gains as Wilting Economic Recovery Fuels Investor Interest
Gold advanced in Asia, rebounding from its biggest decline in more than a week, as concerns that the global economic recovery is faltering helped fuel investor interest in the metal as a store of value.
INDUSTRIAL METALS:
China’s Refined Copper Imports Were 224,723 Tons in July
Refined copper imports by China, the world’s largest consumer, totaled 224,723 metric tons in July, customs office said today.
Copper Advances in Asia on Signs China’s Demand Is Improving
Copper climbed in Asia as some investors who bet on falling prices made purchases to lock in gains following the recent decline, and on optimism China’s demand will offset consumption weakness in the U.S. and Europe.
Japan’s Copper Cable Shipments Increase 2.9% in July (Update1)
Japan’s copper wire and cable shipments climbed 2.9 percent in July from a year earlier, gaining for the seventh straight month, as the country’s export- led economy grew.
Posco CEO Chung Proposes Regional Steel Committee
Posco Chief Executive Officer Chung Joon Yang proposed an industry committee comprising South Korea, Japan and China to tackle issues including raw material price gains, oversupply and emission cuts.
MINING:
BHP, Rio Gain on Optimism Mining Tax May Be Dropped After Poll
BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group rose in Sydney trading after the ruling Australian Labor party failed to win a majority at the weekend election, raising optimism its proposed mining tax may be scrapped or diluted.
Chile Turns to Retrieving Trapped Miners Found Alive Yesterday
Chile is preparing to start drilling a hole to retrieve 33 miners trapped in an underground mine for more than two weeks after they were found alive yesterday.
Oakajee Ore Port Signs Accords With Three Potential Customers
Oakajee Port & Rail Pty, a venture between Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp. and Australia’s Murchison Metals Ltd., signed initial agreements with three potential customers of its iron ore rail and port project.
BHP Credit Swaps May Invert on Bid to Buy Potash: Chart of Day
Short-dated default insurance on BHP Billiton Ltd. may become more expensive than longer-term protection for the first time amid concern about $45 billion of debt needed to buy Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.
AGRICULTURE:
Wheat, Corn Advance on Signs of Rising Demand for U.S. Exports
Wheat and corn advanced on signs of increased demand for U.S. shipments, and on speculation that Russia may open talks on buying from overseas after a drought slashed output and prompted the government to ban exports.
Rubber Drops for Second Day as Slower Economy May Curb Demand
Rubber declined for a second day, extending a retreat from a three-month high, on concern that the economic recovery is faltering, capping demand for the commodity used to make tires.
Palm Oil Gains as Worst Weekly Drop in 10 Months Lures Buyers
Palm oil futures climbed after the biggest weekly drop in more than 10 months lured some investors and as rival soybean oil advanced on concerns dry weather will reduce yields in the U.S., the largest grower and exporter.
Cocoa May Rise on Civil ‘Crisis’ in the Ivory Coast, WSJ Says
Cocoa prices may rise because of a civil “crisis” in the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest grower of the beans, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified industry participants.
Philippines Crop Yields May Drop, Undersecretary Rudinas Says
Philippine crops are vulnerable to La Nina weather and yields may drop, Agriculture Secretary Joel Rudinas said. La Nina, which can bring above-average rainfall in parts of Asia, is expected in the Southeast Asian nation by September and may extend up to February 2011, the agriculture department said.
China July Corn Imports Surge as Supplies Dwindle
China’s corn imports in July surged after traders bought the most overseas grain in more than 10 years to replenish shrinking domestic supplies.
(bloomberg.com)

High commodity prices perk up Onam

Soaring prices of essential goods notwithstanding, Malayalis celebrated Onam in relatively improved economic circumstances than last year's.

This was thanks to the spectacular increase in the prices of farm outputs, especially rubber, and a rise in the remittances from the Gulf countries, where employment situation is looking up.

The improved purchasing power echoed in the pre-Onam shopping spree. White goods sale made rapid strides.

The rise in the prices of rubber, pepper and cardamom and, to some extent coconut, shored up the purchasing power of the rural people. The rubber price has been steadily increasing for three years, though in the past week or so, it slid a little.

Compared to this same time last year, the hike in rubber price has been around 75 per cent, which means a lot to the countryside. At one time, the price rose to Rs.190 a kg, but now it is at Rs.170 plus.

Rubber is one of the economic mainstays of the State and its price is an indication of the economic well-being of the countryside, especially in central Kerala.

Pepper and cardamom are the two other agriculture commodities that witnessed exciting increase in prices and helped to lift the economies of the mountain districts of Wayanad and Idukki, and also in all other districts.

Pepper at present commands a price of over Rs.194 a kg and cardamom now fetches a fantastic price of over Rs.1,340 a kg.

The rise in the prices of these three commodities have lifted the moods of the farmers and perked up the rural economy. Interestingly, the best way to get an indication of the way the prices of rubber, pepper and cardamom is going, it is said, is to have a look at the vehicle sales graph in the State.

A higher price for these products is almost always reflected in the sale of cars - all types and brands of them. The car market in the State has scaled new peaks in the recent months.

Gulf remittances have markedly improved in the past few months. The economic slowdown in the Gulf had cost thousands of jobs of Gulf Malayalis and dipped the pay levels. But, the situation has now improved and companies in the Gulf have resumed recruitment. The construction sector has also revived and salary levels are slowly rising.

The impact of the farm price rise and the better Gulf remittances have been felt on the white goods market. Pre-Onam purchases of white goods, prodded by offers and rebates, have been very brisk in Kochi, Kozhikode, Thrissur, Kottayam and other cities.

However, the soaring prices of vegetables, provisions, meat, fish and almost all goods of daily use affected the people harshly, particularly the salaried and the daily wage earners. The market intervention by the State government, through Supplyco, came in as a minor relief to the urban and semi-urban residents.

(thehindu.com)

AIKS criticises govt move to cut import tariff on rubber

NEW DELHI: A CPI-M backed farmers body, All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS), today condemned the government's move of reducing import tariff on natural rubber from 20 per cent to 7.5 per cent, describing it as "anti-farmer". 

In a statement issued here, the organisation said, "This move is going to lead to dumping of cheap natural rubber from the ASEAN countries. This will have a cascading effect on the prices of natural rubber and the prices in the domestic market will fall drastically." 

Seeking that the retrograde move be immediately scrapped and steps be taken to reinstate restrictions on dumping of rubber in the Indian market, the body called upon the farmers to protest against this move. 

"AIKS will unleash protests against this anti-farmer move," the statement said. 

The farmers' body said that instead of increasing import tariffs and restricting import of natural rubber, the Government has resorted to cutting it drastically only to please the tyre manufacturers lobby and big players in the automobile industry. 

"This step will intensify the acute agrarian crisis in the major rubber growing states and put the lives of lakhs of farmers in peril," it added. 

The farmers' body further said that the decision would affect the livelihoods of lakhs of rubber growers, especially in Kerala, which produces 90 per cent of rubber in India, as well as other such states. 

AIKS said that this cut must also be seen in the context of the India-ASEAN FTA and the Congress-led UPA government's claims of protecting the farmers' interests. 

"The Centre had willfully misled and betrayed the farmers' interests by claiming that rubber had been put in the exclusion list. This exposes their double-speak and hollowness of their claims that the India-ASEAN FTA would not affect Indian farmers adversely," it said.

(economictimes.indiatimes.com)

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Rubber Declines for Second Day on Concern Slower Economy to Curtail Demand

Rubber declined for a second day, extending a retreat from a three-month high, on concern that the economic recovery is faltering, capping demand for the commodity used to make tires.

Futures in Tokyo declined as much as 1.2 percent after climbing 3.7 percent last week. The price reached 295.2 yen per kilogram ($3,459 per metric ton) on Aug. 20, the highest level since May 6.

Most Asian stocks fell amid mounting concern that the global economy may be faltering after calls by a European Central Bank official to maintain stimulus measures. Purchases of U.S. new and existing houses dropped 12 percent to a 5.01 million annual pace, the lowest since March 2009, according to the median forecast of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

“Worries about economies sapped investor appetite for riskier assets,” leading to sales of industrial commodities including rubber, Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at Tokyo-based broker Fujitomi Co., said today by phone.

January-delivery rubber dropped as much as 3.5 yen to 287.6 yen per kilogram on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange before trading at 287.8 yen at 11:27 a.m.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slumped to a nine-month low after European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said emergency lending should be extended, indicating that the region’s debt crisis may take longer to solve.

Weber said on Aug. 20 that the ECB should help banks through end-of-year liquidity tensions before determining in the first quarter when to withdraw emergency-lending measures. The comments on the need to keep open the flow of emergency funds go beyond what ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has announced.

Cash-rubber prices in Thailand, the world’s largest exporter, stayed unchanged at 105.5 baht ($3.35) per kilogram, as supply remained limited because of rainfalls in many estate areas, the Rubber Research Institute of Thailand said Aug. 20.

January-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost 1.2 percent to 25,130 yuan ($3,697) a ton at 10:15 a.m. local time.

(bloomberg.com)

China's Imports of NR in June 2010

China imported 120,000 tonnes natural rubber in June valued at US $ 345.273 million. For the period January-June, China imports of natural rubber reached 840,000 tonnes valued at US $ 2,335.323 million, up 1.0 percent year-on- year.

Following is a table showing import for the period January – June for the years 2009 and 2010, in thousand tonnes:

Month
2009
2010
January
60
170
February
120
130
March
200
190
April
180
140
May
140
90
June
130
120
Total
830
840

(Irco.biz)