Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Rubber Declines for Fourth Day as Crude Oil Retreat Curbs Demand for Tires

Rubber slumped for a fourth day as crude oil extended losses, reducing the appeal of the commodity used to make tires.

Futures in Tokyo fell as much as 2.4 percent to the lowest level in almost three weeks. Oil, base metals and Asian stocks dropped after China’s manufacturing growth slowed and Moody’s Investors Service placed Spain’s credit rating on review for a possible downgrade.

“Concern over the slowing global economy kept putting downward pressure on industrial commodities and equities,” Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at JSC Corp., said today.

December-delivery rubber lost as much as 6.4 yen to 262.8 yen per kilogram ($2,982 a metric ton), the lowest since June 11, on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, before trading at 264.2 yen as of 12:47 p.m. The price dropped 12.7 percent in the second quarter, the first loss since 2008.

Crude oil fell for a fourth day in New York, with the price for August delivery declining as much as 1.3 percent o $74.63 a barrel after reports from the U.S. showed companies added fewer workers in June than forecast and an unexpected increase in gasoline stockpiles in the largest energy consumer.

Copper in London fell as much as 1.3 percent to $6,430.75 a ton and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.4 percent to 111.18.

China’s manufacturing expanded at a slower pace for a second month in June, adding to signs that growth in the world’s third-largest economy is moderating. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.1 from 53.9 in May, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today. That was less than the median 53.2 estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 12 economists.

November-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 2 percent to 21,160 yuan ($3,119) a ton at the 11:30 a.m. local time break. China is the world’s largest auto market and the biggest consumer of natural rubber.

(bloomberg.com)

Growth in global rubber output seen muted

C.J. Punnathara

Kochi, June 30

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has lowered the growth forecast in global rubber production from 6.3 per cent to 5.2 per cent for 2010.

The prime reason attributed for the lower production is because large areas of rubber trees which were planted in 1980s are expected to become less productive and senile.

Also, the weather conditions are expected to be less than favourable in several rubber growing regions of the world during the current year. Demand for rubber is expected to pick up worldwide as the global economic recovery is reportedly gaining pace. As a result, demand for automobiles, especially from the Asian region, is expected to rise sharply in the coming months.

The firm price trends are expected to be sustained into the coming months. These are not happy tidings for the rubber industry which has had to absorb increased raw material costs.

Meanwhile, rubber is not available in the domestic markets even at Rs 183 today, Mr N. Radhakrishnan, former President of the Cochin Rubber Merchants Association, said. After a respite of a single day, futures prices have also moved up.

The Indian government should permit limited rubber imports at lower duty. Or else, the Chinese might import all the rubber from the global markets and India tyre industry may not have sufficient quantity of this vital raw material, he added. Also, deviating from the normal trend observed year after year, the global supply of natural rubber continued to be tight into June this year.

Under normal conditions, supply from all major producing countries usually eases up from April as farmers resume harvesting after the winter rest for the trees, the ANRPC said.

Chinese contribution

To compound the demand-supply deficit, China, which was largely staying away from the market in April/May has re-entered the market as a big buyer in June, resulting in the prices remaining firm. The firm trends in the global commodity markets have been backed by partial float and strengthening of Chinese Yuan and the perception that the global economic recovery is gaining pace.

China accounted for close to 37 per cent of the global rubber demand in 2009. Meanwhile production shortfalls are being reported from several countries on account of adverse weather conditions.

There have been reports that Indonesia's output in June has been affected by continued and unusual rains. Thailand's production fell by 13.3 per cent in April on account of extended wintering.

(thehindubusinessline.com)

Dunlop, Falcon to raise tyre prices on rubber spike

MUMBAI: Tyremakers Dunlop India and Falcon are looking to raise product prices for a second time in a month as rubber prices soar, threatening margins, a senior company official said on Wednesday. 

"We raised prices in the beginning of June between 2-4 percent in different tyre categories. We are thinking once again of raising prices," Pawan Kumar Ruia, chairman of Ruia Group, which owns both companies, said in an interview.

(economictimes.indiatimes.com)

Significant Gain In Domestic Rubber Futures

Domestic Rubber futures gained significantly on strong domestic demand against the tight supply situation. Benchmark July 2010 contract on NMCE surged Rs 512 or nearly three percent to Rs 18349 per 100 kg. The counter is now trading with smart gains nearly the session high.

India's natural rubber prices made a new record recently on the back of reduced arrivals due to monsoon in Kerala and tight demand-supply condition.

It is a new record, heavy rains have affected rubber tapping and there is strong demand simultaneously from the domestic tyre industry”, leading dealer from Kottayam reported.

ANRPC Outlook Remains Strong
As per the latest updates from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, chances of improvement in supply seem to be remote, demand is likely to gain further strength in the short and medium terms thanks to a renewed outlook for global economic recovery.

Potential further strengthening of the baht and the ringgit on China's loosening stance on the Yuan could be another factor supporting rubber prices. China's policy on the Yuan offers scope for increased demand from the country in the end.

As supply remains tight and demand strong, unhealthy speculation may come into picture causing short-lived bubbles in the market. However, large extent of rubber trees cultivated from 2005 onwards offers possibility of an improvement in supply after 2011. At the same time, if largely farmers go for replanting their low yielding aged trees, mostly planted during 1980s, the expected improvement in supply need not take place.

Global supply of natural rubber would grow only slower this year than the rate anticipated earlier. Forecasts based on preliminary estimates and reports available up to mid-June, point to a 5.2% growth, lower than the 6.3% rate anticipated in March and 6.1% rate anticipated in May.

Data and estimates available up to May 2010 reveal that the demand for natural rubber is strong in China, India and Malaysia. About 47% of the global consumption of natural rubber during 2009 was in these members of the ANRPC.

Rubber Futures Dip In Global markets
Key Tokyo rubber futures fell on Wednesday, hurt by a broad slide in commodities the previous day when fears over the outlook for the global economy prompted investors to refrain from taking risks. Traders expect upward price pressure on supply shortage to lift the TOCOM spot contract in the next couple of months. That could possibly also help raise futures prices across the curve.

Rubber futures in the benchmark Tokyo commodity Exchange plunged sharply today. The December 2010 contract touched the low of 266.50 Yen a kg and ended the session lower by 5.2 yen at 269.50 yen a kg.

Rubber November futures in China's Shanghi futures ended the session lower by CNY 150 at CNY 21585 tonne.

(indiainfoline.com)

Vietnam June Rubber Export Down

By Anant Thawatchaipracha

30 June 2010 - The estimated export volume of rubber from Vietnam in June was 55,000 metric tons, down 20% compared with the same month in the previous year, according to the Vietnam General Statistics Office.

However, in terms of value it was estimated to be higher by 58.6% or $157 million compared to $99 million in the same month the previous year.

It was also reported that from January to June, the country exported an estimated 237,000 tons of rubber valued at $652 million, a 6.1% decrease in terms of volume but an 81.3% increase in terms of value.

(Irco.biz)

Japan's NR Stock Down

By Anant Thawatchaipracha

30 June 2010 - The total natural rubber stock of Japan was 12.1% down from 4,054 metric tons on May 31 to 3,563 metric tons on June 10, according to the Rubber Trade Association of Japan.

The inventory has been steadily declining for the last few months. The current level is 31.9% lower than the 5,229 metric tons reported on April 30.

No reasons were given for the changes but outsiders attributed them to tight physical supply in producing regions, consumption of existing stocks due to high import prices, and recent exports to China.

(Irco.biz)

Global Tyre Sale to Improve in 2010

By Siwaporn Bumroongpan

29 June 2010 – The demand for global tyre sales volume will continue to recover in 2010 boosted powerfully by industry performance which impacted the tyre sectors to reach a turning point after a downturn trend in 2008 and 2009, but still below the 2007 level due to the rising natural rubber prices.

New tyre sales in the consumer market are expected to increase 21% from 2009 in the U.S. and 5% in Europe whilst new tyre sales in the commercial market are expected to grow 7.5% in the U.S. and 40% in Europe.

Consumer replacement tyre sales growth in U.S. is projected at less than 1% while in Europe it should rise at least 1%.

Tyre demand in the rest of the world is expected to grow in line with the economic development of the developing countries like China and India, which are forecasted to grow   at 9.9% and 7.8%, respectively.

About 54% of the $140 billion global tyre market is shared between the five major tyre companies, namely Bridgestone Corp. of Japan, Michelin SCA of France; Continental AG of Germany, U.S.-based Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. and Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.

(Irco.biz)

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Rubber Plunges to Two-Week Low on Worries Over Weak Demand

By Aya Takada and Supunnabul Suwannakij

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber tumbled for a third day to more than two-week low on concern that demand for the commodity may weaken amid slow economic growth in China and the U.S.

December-delivery futures declined as much as 2.9 percent to at 266.5 yen ($3,011 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the lowest since June 14. Prices are set for the first quarterly decline since the end of 2008.

Crude oil dropped for a third day on concern over weakening economic expansion in China and as confidence waned more than forecast among consumers in the U.S. Worries over the pace of global economic recovery still pressure market sentiment, said Felix Yeo, trading manager at the Singapore unit of Marubeni Corp. A decline in oil prices also dragged the rubber price lower, he added.

The Conference Board said yesterday its leading economic index for China climbed more slowly in April than previously estimated. The board’s U.S. confidence index in June was lower than all forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped to its lowest level since October.

The December delivery contract fell 2.2 percent to 268.3 yen a kilogram as of 10:57 a.m. in Tokyo. The price advanced yesterday to 285.2 yen, the highest level since May 28, as rain disrupted output in Thailand, the biggest producer and exporter.

‘Downside Limited’

“The downside is limited as Japan and China have low inventories,” said Yeo. “Raw materials are still tight and that will easily push up the market again.”

Inventories in China declined to the lowest level in seven years, sparking optimism that the world’s biggest buyer may soon replenish inventories, data showed. Natural rubber stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1,670 tons to 14,771 tons, the bourse said on June 25. It was the lowest level since January 2003, according to Bloomberg data.

China, the largest auto market, is the biggest consumer of natural rubber. The nation may increase gross imports of the raw material to 1.68 million tons this year, from 1.59 million in 2009, according to a May report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

November-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 0.5 percent to 21,475 yuan ($3,162) a ton at 11:30 a.m. local time break.

Cash prices in Thailand declined as Chinese buyers have shifted to purchasing cheaper rubber from Indonesia, the Rubber Institute of Thailand said on its website yesterday. The Thai benchmark price dropped 0.6 percent yesterday to 118.10 baht ($3.67) a kilogram, it said. Price will be updated in the afternoon.

(bloomberg.com)

Rubber Futures in Tokyo Drop as Much as 2.9% to 266.5 Yen/Kg

By Aya Takada
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber futures in Tokyo declined as much as 2.9 percent after crude oil slumped. The December- delivery contract dropped to 266.5 yen a kilogram at 9 a.m.
(Bloomberg.com)

Apollo Tyres to hike prices next week

Apollo Tyres today said it will increase the prices of its products next week, the fourth such instance since January, on account of the rising cost of natural rubber.

"Natural rubber prices are increasing day by day and to offset the pressure, we will increase the prices of our tyres. We will be announcing the exact quantum of price hike next week," Apollo Tyres Chief Financial Officer Sunam Sarkar told PTI.

The company has hiked prices thrice this year so far, in January, May and June. Overall, the prices of tyres across segments have increased by 8 per cent to 10 per cent this year.
The prices of Apollo Tyres' products are likely to be raised on both the OEM (original equipment manufacturers) side and the retail side.

The price of the company's passenger car tyres ranges from Rs 1,200 to Rs 10,000, while its commercial vehicles tyres cost around Rs 8,000 to Rs 15,000 per unit. Its total domestic capacity is about 1,000 metric tonnes a day.

Tyre prices have been increasing in the recent past due to rising natural rubber costs. All manufacturers have hiked prices by about 10 per cent since January this year. A further hike of up to 25 per cent in tyre prices during the remainder of this fiscal has been signalled by the industry.

Natural rubber prices have increased by over 150 per cent during the last one-and-a-half years, touching Rs 170 per kilogram from Rs 65 per kilogram in December, 2008.

(business-standard.com)

Decline in spot rubber prices

On Tuesday (29 June 2010), the spot rubber prices declined following the decline in the domestic and international rubber futures. Sheet rubber declined to Rs 179.25 from Rs 180 per kg mainly on profit booking at higher levels.

The July futures for RSS 4 declined to Rs 178.30 (180.75), August to Rs 172.10 (173.73), September to Rs 165.21 (166.69) and October to Rs 161 (162.63) per kg on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 179.25 (180); RSS-5: 177 (178); ungraded: 174 (176); ISNR 20: 157 (158) and latex 60 per cent: 127 (127).

(indiainfoline.com)

Monday, June 28, 2010

Rubber Retreats From One-Month High as Crude Oil's Decline Reduces Appeal

Rubber retreated from a one-month high as crude oil declined amid concern slower economic growth may curb demand, cutting the appeal of the commodity as an alternative to synthetic products.

Futures in Tokyo dropped as much as 3.2 percent to the lowest level in a week. The price climbed yesterday to 288.6 yen per kilogram (3,229 a metric ton), the highest level since May 28, as rainfall disrupted output in Thailand, the world’s biggest producer and exporter.

Crude oil declined from a seven-week high in New York on skepticism that production in the Gulf of Mexico will be disrupted by a tropical storm in the region. U.S. forecasters projected that Tropical Storm Alex will move across the southern Gulf and make landfall as a hurricane July 1 in Mexico.

“A drop in oil was the largest drag on the price of rubber,” Shuji Sugata, research manager at Mitsubishi Corp. Futures Ltd. in Tokyo, said today by phone. “An unclear outlook for global economies also sapped investor appetite for industrial commodities.”

Rubber for December delivery lost as much as 9.1 yen to 274.7 yen before trading at 277.4 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange at 11:08 a.m. local time.

The price advanced yesterday as data showed stockpiles in China declined to the lowest level in seven years, sparking optimism that the world’s biggest buyer may soon replenish inventories.

Stockpiles Drop

Natural rubber stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1,670 tons to 14,771 tons, the bourse said on June 25. It was the lowest level since January 2003, according to the Bloomberg data.

China, the largest auto market, is the biggest consumer of natural rubber. The nation may increase gross imports of the raw material to 1.68 million tons this year, from 1.59 million in 2009, according to a May report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

November-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost 1.5 percent to 21,930 yuan ($3,226) a ton at 10:14 a.m. local time.

The benchmark price in Thailand was unchanged yesterday at 118.85 baht ($3.67) a kilogram, according to the Rubber Institute of Thailand. It will issue new data in the afternoon.

(bloomberg.com)

Rubber prices flare up to Rs 180/kg on lower arrivals

Aravindan

C.J. Punnathara

Kottayam/Kochi, June 28

Sheet rubber prices for RSS 4 grade flared up to Rs 180 a kg on Monday on lower arrivals, partly on account of the rain arresting tapping operations and farmers withholding stocks. Despite the high prices and low arrivals, there was fair amount of buying from the market, mainly by the big tyre companies.

Mr Sajen Peter, Rubber Board Chairman, expressed his satisfaction over the rise in rubber prices. But he pointed out that the difference between the domestic and international price is Rs 10.

‘Harmful’

Further rise in rubber prices is not in anyway beneficial to the rubber industry and it appears to be unhealthy to the rubber sector as a whole, said Mr George Waly, President, Indian Rubber Dealers Federation at Kottayam.

“Rubber prices have been on a steep upward trajectory over the past few weeks and have touched a record high level of Rs 180 a kg. Industry is compelled to buy its most critical raw material at such unprecedented prices and absorb most of the hike, since the entire price hike cannot be passed on to the end consumers,” Mr Rajiv Budhraja, Director-General of the Automotive Tyre Manufacturers Association, said.

FRESH STOCKS

Of equal concern to the industry is the fact that most of the stocks in the market are fresh stock. Industry doesn’t find any evidence of the two lakh tonnes-plus buffer stock as stated by the Rubber Board. This further lends credence to the industry’s contention that the buffer stock is only on paper. At these prices points, rubber prices have even overshot international prices by Rs 6-8 a kg in case of sheet rubber and Rs 20-25 a kg in case of block rubber. However, due to continuing inverted duty structure, imports are not a viable option either, Mr Budhraja added.

Meanwhile, there were hardly any buyers for lower grade lots in the market and arrivals were virtually nil. The lower grades were most often bought by smaller companies mainly manufacturing cycle and rickshaw tubes that have totally gone off the market, Mr N. Radhakrishnan, former President of the Cochin Rubber Merchants Association, said. Cycle and rickshaw tyre and tubes are highly price-elastic and consumers will not be willing to buy at the current high prices.

Also, there was relative convergence between rubber futures and spot prices. While the divergence between rubber futures and spot prices had flared up last month in anticipation of lower tapping and subdued arrivals in the market, that trend seems to be reversing at the moment, a trader in the futures market said.

Arrivals may rise

Besides, arrivals are expected to perk up in the coming months as the monsoon begins to wane and the productivity of the trees increases. There is also apprehension that with international prices lagging behind domestic prices, how far could the price surge be sustained in the market. But the growers are happy reaping windfall gains which they would not have believed possible six months ago.

Reports also indicate that there have been not been significant slowdown in tapping operations due to the monsoon. The intermittent nature of the rains and high prices have encouraged the farmer to continue with his tapping operations. Also, over 75 per cent of the rubber trees are rain guarded in order to pursue unhindered tapping operations even during the rainy season.

Spot rubber continued to explore record highs on Monday. The market opened with a gap after being closed for a hartal on Saturday and improved sharply on covering purchases to fill the gap between the domestic rubber futures on NMCE. Sheet rubber flared up to Rs 180 from Rs 177 a kg, gaining further strength from short supplies. Meanwhile, intensified rain was reported from the plantation areas and the market made all-round gains even amidst below-average volumes.

On the National Multi Commodity Exchange, the July series weakened to Rs180.51 (181.94), August to Rs 173.75 (174.53), September to Rs166.98 (167.93) and October to Rs 162.90 (164.54) a kg for RSS 4. On Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the July futures increased to ¥367.1 / Rs 189.66 (¥363.7), September to ¥321.3 (¥319.9), October to ¥300.2 (¥297.7) , November to ¥289.5 (284.7) and December to ¥283.8 (278.6) while the August futures closed flat at ¥340.2 (¥ 340.2) a kg for RSS 3 during the day session. The July futures slipped to ¥365 (Rs 188.54), August to ¥335.9, September to ¥319.5, October to ¥299 and November to ¥289 while the December futures closed steady at ¥283.8 a kg during the night session. RSS 3 (spot) firmed up to Rs 170.95 (169.98) a kg at Bangkok. Spot rubber prices (Rs/kg) follow: RSS-4: 180 (177); RSS-5: 178 (174); Ungraded: 176 (172); ISNR 20: 158 (156) and Latex 60 per cent: 127 (122).

(thehindubusinessline.com)

Global rubber consumption may rise 12%

More demand, low supply may push prices to Rs 200 a kg from Rs 180 now.
Despite an estimated 6.2 per cent growth in global supply this year, the natural rubber (NR) market is poised for a strong bull run. The price of benchmark grade RSS-4 on Monday touched an all-time high of Rs 180 a kg. Both growers and traders here anticipate further rise in prices. They expect the price to touch Rs 200 a kg soon.
According to the latest consumption trend, global consumption may rise 11-12 per cent by the end of the year. There has been a huge fall in consumption in the West, especially the US. But, all leading Asian economies are consuming more rubber.
GAINING STRENGTH
Rubber production (in tonnes)
Country20092010*% change
Thailand3,164,0003,240,0002.40
Indonesia2,440,0002,592,0006.20
Malaysia857,0001,000,00016.70
India820,000895,0009.10
Vietnam724,000770,0006.40
China646,000680,0005.30
Sri Lanka137,000142,0003.70
Cambodia34,00049,00043.90
Total8,822,0009,369,0006.20
*estimated

According to latest estimates of the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), the supply from the ANRPC region may rise 6.2 per cent this year after three consecutive years of stagnation or decline.
The estimated output for the current year is 9.37 million tonnes. The output growth in 2007, 2008 and 2009 was 0.2 per cent, nil and -3.6 per cent, respectively.
Sibi Monippally, general secretary, Indian Rubber Growers Association (IRGA), said it was unlikely that prices would decline as south-east Asian nations were increasing their inventories. The market was likely to be in a strong bull phase, he said.
Preliminary estimates from ANRPC indicate the demand from China, India and Malaysia will be strong. This is mainly due to a buoyant automobile market in Asia’s economies. NR consumption rose in the first four months of this year by 25.5 per cent in China, 11.7 per cent in India and 13.6 per cent in Malaysia on an annualised basis. In China, which accounts for 32 per cent global demand, the imports of NR and NR-rich grades of compound rubber rose 17.3 per cent during the period. China’s consumption is estimated to rise 10.2 per cent in 2010 to 3.35 million tonnes.
In Malaysia, imports rose 30.4 per cent during January-April. The country is estimated to have imported 253,000 tonnes during the first four months of this year as against 194,000 tonnes in the same period last year.
In India, consumption increased to 316,000 tonnes in January-April as against 283,000 tonnes in the same period of 2009. According to Sajan Peter, chairman, Rubber Board, India was at the second spot in consumption, surpassing the US in 2009-10, clocking 6.8 per cent growth.
Consumption in the US dropped 34 per cent due to economic turmoil, he added. There will be a deficit of 85,000 tonnes in production over consumption in 2010-11 in the domestic market according to the board. But, Peter says, there will be no problem in availability in the local market as there is an opening stock of 248,457 tonnes.
The gap in consumption and production would widen not only in India but globally too. Rubber Board estimates show consumption will rise 6 per cent in 2010-11 while production will rise 9.1 per cent. However, industry sources do not agree with this.
According to them, consumption will increase more than 12 per cent in the current financial year. So, it is the supply-demand inequilibrium that determines prices the world over. The sharp increase in consumption and imports by China seem to be major factors behind the surge in prices.
During January-April, China imported 602,000 tonnes NR and 344,000 tonnes compound rubber, while imports were just 37,000 tonnes. So, the rate of increase in consumption in the ASEAN region, China and India would determine the future course in the rubber mart.
The increase in consumption in this region outperformed the drop in the EU and the US, said experts.

(business-standard.com)

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Rubber Climbs to One-Month High as Supply in China Declines

By Aya Takada

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber advanced to a one-month high after data showed stockpiles in China, the largest consumer, declined to the lowest level in seven years.

Futures in Tokyo climbed to 288.6 yen per kilogram ($3,231 a metric ton), matching a high reached on May 28. The price gained 3.8 percent last week, booking the second weekly increase, as rainfall disrupted production in Thailand, the world’s biggest producer and exporter.

Natural rubber stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped 1,670 tons to 14,771 tons, the bourse said on June 25. It was the lowest level since January 2003, according to the Bloomberg data.

“Chinese buyers may have withheld rubber purchases amid speculation that the raw material prices would drop on a seasonal increase in production,” Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at commodity broker Fujitomi Co. in Tokyo, said today by phone. “As rubber prices have stayed high,” they may step up buying to replenish inventories, he added.

Rubber for December delivery rose to 284.1 yen at 10:44 a.m. local time from its settlement of 278.6 yen on June 25. It has become the most-actively traded contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange after its listing on June 25.

November-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange added 1.7 percent to 22,265 yuan ($3,278) a ton at 9:47 a.m. local time. Earlier, it rose to 22,355 yuan, the highest level since June 2.

China Demand

China, the largest auto market, is the biggest consumer of natural rubber. The nation may increase gross imports of the raw material to 1.68 million tons this year, from 1.59 million in 2009, according to a May report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

The benchmark price in Thailand added 0.8 percent to 118.85 baht ($3.67) a kilogram, supported by limited supply and growing auto demand in many countries, the Rubber Institute of Thailand said June 25. The group, which reviews the price once a day, issues new data in the afternoon.

Rubber prices may climb 26 percent next year as supplies lag behind demand, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Asia Securities (Singapore) Pte.

Natural rubber may average $4,500 a ton next year, up from $3,580 a ton year-to-date, as “heavy rainfall in southern Thailand has disrupted supply” and “inventory levels in China are worse than we expected,” Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, a commodities analyst at the bank, said in an e-mailed report last week.

(bloomberg.com)

Climate change hits rubber productivity: Sajen Peter, Chairman, Rubber Board

 A commodity that has wide industrial use and is largely produced by one million small growers, rubber always makes headlines whenever there are price fluctuations. While growers try to maximise their returns from the crop, user industries try to minimise raw material costs. In the midst of these opposing pulls and pressures, the government is making crop-specific intervention through the Rubber Board and the latter has been effective in increasing the acreage under the crop. Sajen Peter, the chairman of the Board, who is completing his tenure this August, spoke to S Sanandakumar on a variety of topics ranging from supply and demand and the impact of climate changes. 

Climatic changes and their impact on crop production, including rubber, is a hot topic these days. What are your views on this phenomenon? 

It is an important area of inquiry as far as rubber is concerned. In fact, I was one of the first persons to raise the issue in 2007 at Brussels at the meeting of the Advisory Panel of International Rubber Study Group (IRSG). I said that the IRSG should study the phenomenon and even suggested that they join hands with the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) for the study. We, at the Rubber Board, did a study using the data of the last fifty years and found that warm nights are increasing steadily. This has had an impact. The productivity of rubber trees in India which stood at 1,903 kg per hectare per year in 2008 was down to 1,796 kg per hectare per year in 2009. Climate change is a significant factor for this fall in productivity though other factors also might have contributed. 

What is the global demand for rubber? 

The western markets will take more time to come back to their earlier growth path. But this has been counter-balanced by the growth of eastern markets, especially India and China. In this context, let me remind you that the IRSG had anticipated that India will become the second largest consumer of rubber by 2015-2020 which happened last year because of the fall in the consumption in the US market by around 34%. It is difficult to retain this position. But the slow recovery in western markets might give India more time at the second slot. 

Is production increasing? 

Rubber cultivation is spreading. This year, the supply-demand gap is only 85,000 tonnes. However, we started with an opening stock of 2.40 lakh tonnes.

Is the area expansion in the North-East going as per plans? 

Yes. Our Fifth Plan target was to increase the area by 25,000 hectares in the North-East. So far, we have nearly 13,700 hectares under rubber plantation but this data is incomplete as it does not reflect the planted area for which subsidy has not been given. If we add that figure, the actual achievement would be close to target. 
Rubber trees are seen as an answer against global warming. Your comment. 

Yes. The green canopy of rubber is seen as an answer for global warming. But I am against the conversion of forest land for rubber cultivation. Only in the case of the North-East where jhum cultivation is practised, we do suggest rubber as an alternative. Also, I am against the conversion of land meant for food crops for rubber. To discourage this practice, we even deny planting subsidy in such cases where farmlands meant for food production are used for rubber cultivation. 

The user industry has approached the Delhi High Court on the issue of rubber price. What are your views on this? 

The government has set up a committee to study this as per the court order. As chairman of Rubber Board, I will be heading that committee and I still have to study the issues. But the amended Rubber Act clearly says that the question of fixing a minimum and maximum price for rubber is a matter to be decided by the government.

(economictimes.indiatimes.com)

Friday, June 25, 2010

Rubber Has Second Weekly Gain on Supply Concern, Tire Sales

By Aya Takada

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber climbed for a third day on speculation that rainfall will disrupt output in Thailand, the world’s largest producer, making it difficult for suppliers to meet growing demand from tire makers.

Futures in Tokyo gained as much as 1.5 percent, nearing a one-week high reached yesterday. The price climbed 3.8 percent this week, booking the second weekly increase.

Bridgestone Corp., the largest tiremaker, raised its first- half net income forecast by 37 percent yesterday, citing higher sales and overseas prices. The monsoon covering the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand is causing heavy rains in many parts of the country, according to the Thai Meteorological Department.

“Futures were supported by a strong cash price amid speculation rain may keep disrupting tapping in Thailand,” Kazuhiko Saito, an analyst at commodity broker Fujitomi Co. in Tokyo, said today by phone. “A bullish earnings outlook by Bridgestone was also positive to the market.”

November-delivery rubber gained as much as 4.3 yen to 285.2 yen per kilogram ($3,184 a metric ton) before settling at 284.7 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. The December-delivery contract, which was listed on the bourse today, settled at 278.6 yen after opening at 279 yen.

Bridgestone said yesterday net income in the six months ending June may be 37 billion yen ($413 million), compared with a previous projection of 27 billion yen. The company attributed the revision to increased tire sales and improvement in product prices in overseas markets.

Strong Demand

“Given the outlook, tire demand may remain strong for the rest of this year,” Saito said.

China, the world’s largest auto market, is the biggest user of natural rubber. The nation may increase gross imports of the raw material to 1.68 million tons this year, from 1.59 million in 2009, according to a May report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

Rubber prices may climb 26 percent next year as supplies lag behind demand, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Asia Securities (Singapore) Pte.

Natural rubber may average $4,500 a ton next year, up from $3,580 a ton year-to-date, as “heavy rainfall in southern Thailand has disrupted supply” and “inventory levels in China are worse than we expected,” Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, a commodities analyst at the bank, said in an e-mailed report.

The benchmark price in Thailand advanced 0.8 percent to 118.85 baht ($3.67) a kilogram, supported by limited supply and growing auto demand in many countries, the Rubber Institute of Thailand said on its website today.

November-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange added 0.4 percent to 21,890 yuan ($3,222) a ton at 3:00 p.m. local time.

(bloomberg.com)

Rubber, tea estates set to gain from rain, sunshine

C.J. Punnathara

Kochi, June 24

The intermittent rain and sunshine last week augurs a better crop for the rubber and tea plantations of South India, but is likely to dampen the cardamom production. Bouts of rains and sunshine is the ideal weather for rubber plantations since it augments better production as well as enable tapping operations, Mr N Radhakrishnan, former President of the Cochin Rubber Merchants Association, said.

The farmers were already enthused by the high reigning prices and these ideal weather conditions would have provided the final catalyst, Mr Radhakrishnan added. Also, almost 70-75 per cent of the plantations are reported to have undertaken rain-guarding of their trees to ensure that tapping continues unhindered even in the rains. However, arrivals to the markets have thinned out.

Renewed buying

And this had nothing to do with tapping or production but has more to do with speculation and holding back of stocks, sources in the trade said. The thinning arrivals were mainly due to the high prevalent prices which have prompted the farmer to hold back his stocks in anticipation that the price rise might be sustained into the coming days, the sources added. Reports of renewed buying by China from global rubber markets have also propped up the Indian rubber prices.

While international rubber sheet prices had often overtaken Indian prices in the recent past, sources pointed out that Standard Malaysian Rubber (SMR) prices were often reigning lower than the Indian prices. The corresponding domestic grade would be the Indian Standard Natural Rubber (ISNR) which is most often of a lower quality. While SMR is made from pure latex, ISNR is made from crump rubber, which is the residue from the hardened latex.

While the superior SMR prices are quoting in the Malaysian markets at Rs 135 a kg, the inferior ISNR prices are quoting over Rs 150, Mr Radhakrishnan said. This is mainly because of the weak demand for SBR from the developed markets of the West which were its traditional big importers. Most of the Asian markets trade in rubber sheets. Trade sources said that it would be feasible for India to import SMR at the current prices to stem the Indian price rise. However, they conceded that any news of imminent imports into India was likely to trigger price spiral in SMR.

Crop arrivals

Reports indicate that intermittent rains coupled with sunshine have resulted in a flush of new leaves in South Indian tea plantations and the crop arrivals have begun to pick up. And if the favourable weather condition persists, the crop in the coming months is likely to look up.

However, crops such as cardamom require huge amount of water and adequate amount of shade. The intermittent rains reported in several growing regions are reportedly not adequate to recharge the groundwater and ensure a good crop. But, we are only in the early part of the monsoon and consistent rains in the months ahead could very well change the outlook, farmers pointed out.

(thehindubusinessline.com)

Rubber price touches all-time high of Rs 173.50 a kg

NEW DELHI: The price of rubber today touched a new record high of Rs 173.50 per kg, mainly on account of high demand and tight supply. 

"It is a new record. Heavy rains have affected rubber tapping and there is strong demand simultaneously from the domestic tyre industry," Rubber Dealers Association President George Valy said. 

Also, growers are hoarding rubber as they expect prices to touch Rs 180 per kg, he noted, adding, "I will not be surprised if rubber quotes at Rs 175-176 a kg in a couple of days." 

Valy said that growers could be holding on to 1.5 lakh tonnes of stocks as of now. 

In addition to these factors, Cochin Rubber Merchants Association President N Radhakrishnan also attributed the movement in futures prices to the continuous rise in wholesale rates over the last five days. 

On the National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE), the July futures contract for the commodity reached a high of Rs 174.87 a kg before closing at Rs 172.41 per kg. 

The price of natural rubber (RSS-4 variety) had stabilised at Rs 168-170.5 a kg only by the beginning of the month and remained within that range until June 19, after which it started rising steadily. 

Over the last two months, rubber rates had been fluctuating between Rs 172 (the last all-time high level) and Rs 149 a kg. 

Natural rubber production increased by 2 per cent to 54,600 tonnes in May, compared to 53,550 tonnes in the same month last year. 

The Rubber Board has projected an output of 8.93 lakh tonnes for the 2010-11 fiscal, 7.4 per cent higher than 8.31 lakh tonnes in FY'10.

(economictimes.indiatimes.com)

Rise in spot rubber prices

On Thursday (24 June 2010), the spot rubber prices rose following the gains in the domestic and international rubber futures. Sheet rubber increased to Rs 173.50 from Rs 172 per kg though the tyre sector continued to stay back as usual.

The July futures for RSS 4 rose to Rs 174.67 (172.41), August to Rs 168 (167.40) and September to Rs 163.30 (162.68) per kg on the National Multi Commodity Exchange.

Spot rates were (Rs/kg): RSS-4: 173.50 (172); RSS-5: 171.50 (170); ungraded: 169.50 (168); ISNR 20: 154 (153) and latex 60 per cent: 122 (121).

(indiainfoline.com)

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Rubber Climbs on Expectations of Chinese Purchases, Slowing Thai Supplies

Rubber advanced for a second time in three days on expectations of Chinese buying as stockpiles fall and supplies from Thailand, the largest grower, increase at a slower pace than estimated.

Futures in Tokyo climbed as much as 0.5 percent to 279.1 yen per kilogram ($3,087 a metric ton) after falling 1.4 percent earlier today. The most-active contract is heading for a second weekly gain amid optimism that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may not substantially weaken demand for the commodity used to make tires and gloves.

“Heavy rainfall in southern Thailand has sparked worries that supplies may not be as much as expected,” Varut Rungkhum, analyst at commodity broker Agro Wealth Ltd., said by phone from Bangkok. “Low stockpiles in China also boosted optimism the biggest buyers will soon start building inventories.”

Rubber for November-delivery settled at 277.9 yen per kilogram, adding 0.1 percent from yesterday, on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

The November-delivery contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 0.1 percent to settle at 21,520 yuan ($3,161) a ton.

“Low level of rubber stocks in Japan and Shanghai” supported the market gains, said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Tokyo-based IDO Securities Co.

China’s natural rubber inventories fell 1,440 tons to 16,441 tons, based on a survey of 10 warehouses in Shanghai, Shandong, Yunnan, Hainan and Tianjin, the Shanghai Futures Exchange said June 18. It is the lowest level since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China Imports

China, the world’s largest auto market, is the biggest user of natural rubber. The nation may increase gross imports of the raw material to 1.68 million tons this year, from 1.59 million in 2009, according to a May report from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

Rains are spreading in southern Thailand, with heavy rains in some province, the Meteorological Department said on its website today. Thailand’s southern provinces represent 68 percent of total rubber plantation area.

“Nearby contracts will probably stabilize as production from Thailand will increasingly come onto the market,” Katsumi Kinoshita, senior manager for Institutional Department, Orion Koeki Co. Ltd., said by phone from Kobe.

Rubber for June-delivery gained as much as 2.8 percent to settle at 364 yen per kilogram.

Global rubber output may total 9.7 million to 10.2 million tons this year as drought and heavy rainfall in key producing countries including Thailand and Indonesia damage supply, Stephen Evans, the secretary-general of the International Rubber Study Group, said in an interview last week. That compares with the group’s forecast range of 10.1 million to 10.6 million tons on March 17.

Demand will probably increase by 4.4 percent this year to 9.8 million tons, based on the assumption that the economic recovery will slow, Evans said. The group forecast 10.2 million tons in March.

(bloomberg.com)

ASSOCOMAPLAST

Italy's rubber and plastics industry still down in 2009 / Exports shift towards Latin America and Asia / Giorgio Colombo confirmed as new chairman
Italy’s market for plastics and rubber machinery, equipment and moulds is still reeling under the pervasive economic downturn, with production down EUR 900m year-on-year in 2009, at EUR 3,300m. Detailed figures for the country’s plastics and rubber industries were presented at a recent general assembly meeting of the Italian plastics and rubber processing machinery and mould manufacturers’ association Assocomaplast (Milan; www.assocomaplast.org). In 2007, the industry trade balance still had EUR 2,118m in surplus. By 2009, that figure had dropped to EUR 1,919m. Imports fell to EUR 472m (2008: EUR 607m), while exports took a tumble to EUR 1,853m last year (EUR 2,523m).

While exports to Europe, the Middle East, NAFTA and Oceania were down, Assocomaplast’s data actually shows a year-on-year increase for goods shipped to the Far East, South and Central America, as well as Africa. A similar shift, especially toward the east, was also observed by the German plastics and rubber machinery association KuG (Frankfurt; www.kug.vdma.org) – see PIEWeb of 04.06.2010.

All is not gloom, however. Some 70% of respondents to a recent Assocomaplast survey reported that their order book situation in May 2010 trumped that of the previous year, with 45% of those polled even testifying to growth over April 2010. When queried about how they saw business develop in H1 2010 as compared to H1 2009, 45% of respondents said business was up, while 46% reported stability.

During its 9 June meeting, the Assocomaplast general assembly also gave its stamp of approval to the earlier appointment of Giorgio Colombo as new chairman. Colombo had been unanimously proposed by Assocomaplast’s committee in May – see PIEWeb of 14.05.2010. Other personnel changes include the appointment of Alessandro Grassi as vice-chairman and Mario Maggiani’s nomination to the post of secretary general.

(plasteurope.com)

Asian physical rubber prices - June 23

BANGKOK, June 23 - Asian physical rubber prices were slightly lower on Wednesday and were likely to drop gradually over the next few weeks because of rising supplies in major producing countries, dealers said.

Rubber supplies are due to rise in July as rain in parts of Thailand and Malaysia, the biggest and third-biggest producers respectively, is likely to ease, allowing farmers to tap more latex, they said.

For a full report on TOCOM, click on [RUB/T]

PRICES OF ASIAN PHYSICAL RUBBER COMPARED WITH JUNE 22

Grade Price Change

Thai RSS3 (Aug) $3.60 unchanged

Thai STR20 (Aug) $3.00 -$0.05

Malaysia SMR20 (Aug) $2.85 -$0.05

Indonesia SIR20 (Aug) $1.33/lb -$0.02

Thai USS3 112 baht/kg unchanged

Thai 60-percent latex (drum/ Aug) $2,200 unchanged

Thai 60-percent latex (bulk/ Aug) $2,100 unchanged

**NOTE - The prices quoted above are offers collected from traders in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. They are not official prices quoted by state-run rubber agencies in those countries.

(news.alibaba.com)

Toyota Halts Output at China Plant After Supplier Hit by Strike

Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. halted production at factories in southern China after two suppliers’ plants were closed by strikes, extending disputes at parts makers in the nation to at least eight in the past month.

Toyota’s factory in Guangzhou, Guangdong province remains closed today after output was suspended yesterday morning because of a strike at a Denso Corp. venture, Hitoshi Yokoyama, a Beijing-based spokesman for the carmaker, said. Honda closed two plants in Guangzhou after a walkout at NHK Spring Co., said Natsuno Asanuma, a Tokyo-based spokeswoman at Honda.

Strikes have spread since Honda agreed last month to raise wages at a parts supplier by 24 percent to end a stoppage that halted its production in the world’s largest auto market. The unrest at foreign-owned factories in China reflects a shrinking supply of low-cost labor in the nation.

“This illustrates the growing pains the Chinese auto industry is going through,” said Ashvin Chotai, London-based managing director of Intelligence Automotive Asia Ltd., an industry consultant. “It’s facing the same labor problems seen earlier in developed nations. Over the long term, manufacturers need to have a range of contingency plans,” such as getting the same parts from multiple suppliers, he said.

BMW’s ‘Dispute’

Employees at a BMW car dealership in the city of Dalian, Liaoning province, went on strike to protest unpaid bonuses, the 21st Century Business Herald reported today. Duan Yi, a spokeswoman for Bayerische Motoren Werke AG in Beijing, said there was a “dispute” between workers and management and that said she couldn’t confirm whether employees were striking.

Toyota fell 1.7 percent to close at 3,220 yen in Tokyo trading, while Denso dropped 1.2 percent. Honda lost 1.5 percent and NHK Spring declined 1.4 percent.

Toyota supplier Denso Guangzhou Nansha Co., a joint venture in Guangzhou, halted production yesterday as workers walked out demanding higher wages and improved benefits, Denso spokesman Toshihiro Nishiwaki said by phone yesterday from Aichi, Japan.

The strike and negotiations are continuing today, company spokesman Goro Kanemasu said. He declined to elaborate on workers’ demands and said he wasn’t aware of disruptions at any other Denso facilities.

Denso, Japan’s largest car-parts manufacturer, is about 23 percent owned by Toyota, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Nissan, Foxconn

Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker, builds Camry sedans, Highlander sport-utility vehicles and Yaris compact cars at the Guangzhou factory.

The strike at the NHK Spring plant that supplies Honda began late yesterday, said Hiroaki Saito, a spokesman for the Yokohama-based parts maker. The factory, which makes coil springs and stabilizers for cars, is closed today and negotiations are ongoing, he said.

Nissan Motor Co., Japan’s third-largest carmaker, has yet to report any disruptions due to the spreading strikes in China.

“The events are not making us change our plans” in terms of inventory management or automation, Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of the Yokohama-based company, said after an annual shareholder meeting today.

Worker unrest has forced Japanese carmakers and other foreign manufacturers including Taiwan’s Foxconn Technology Group to spend more on labor. Suppliers to Toyota and Honda agreed to raise wages as at least six previous strikes broke out at their Chinese factories in the past month.

Toyoda Gosei

Employees at Toyota affiliate Toyoda Gosei Co. ended a strike on June 19. Workers at another Toyota supplier, Tianjin Star Light Rubber and Plastic Co., walked out briefly on June 15 before the dispute was settled when the company offered a pay increase.

About 300 workers are involved in the strike at Denso’s Guangzhou venture, Beijing-based spokesman Shen Meihua said yesterday. The plant, which makes fuel injection systems, employs about 1,100 people, according to a company report.

Toyota’s Yokoyama said the automaker’s factory in Tianjin, northern China, is operating normally. The carmaker closed the plant on June 18 because of the strike at Toyoda Gosei.

Honda agreed last month to raise pay 24 percent for workers at a parts plant in Foshan, Guangdong, after a strike shut down all four of its China car factories. Another Honda parts supplier in Foshan was shut June 7 to June 10 by a walkout.

More than 20 Chinese provinces and cities, including the manufacturing hub Shenzhen, raised minimum wages this year to help companies recruit workers and to boost domestic consumption, the city government said this month.

Long-Term Benefit

Higher investment and improved wages in western China are deterring workers from migrating, pushing up pay in more industrialized regions like Guangdong in the south, said David Abrahamson, project manager at the China Center for Labor and Environment.

Workers say the pay increases are necessary to help keep pace with the rising cost of living in China. Inflation accelerated to an annual pace of 3.1 percent in May, the biggest increase in 19 months. Property prices in May jumped 12.4 percent across 70 cities from a year earlier, the government said on June 10.

Increasing wages may help automakers in the long run by boosting demand for cars in China, said Andrew Phillips, an analyst in Tokyo at BNP Paribas SA. Carmakers are producing in China to meet domestic demand, not because of low costs, he said.

“Wages as a percentage of revenue are tiny,” Phillips said. “The concern is more loss of production.”

(bloomberg.com)

BP Spill May Be Less Than Doomsayers Think: Commentary by Tadeusz Patzek

Two months have passed since the blowout of the BP Plc exploratory Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico. Much more is now known about a string of fateful decisions taken in the course of drilling this well.

Individually, none of BP’s decisions would have caused the blowout, but their confluence led almost inevitably to the largest oil-related tragedy in U.S. history. Eleven people have died, a whole coastal region of the Gulf of Mexico has been devastated and it is uncertain that BP will survive the ordeal.

There is some good news, however: Most of the oil and gas spewing from the failed well is now being captured by BP engineers. Here is why.

On June 17, video feeds showed oil and gas to be still escaping from the containment hat attached to the failed blowout preventer (BOP) on top of the well. The brown part of the plume consists of oil droplets, while the white bubbles are gas encapsulated in hydrate ice skins. These ice-gas bubbles eventually dissolve in seawater, thus they never reach the ocean surface.

I have watched the BP video feeds for weeks. The plume currently overflowing the top hat is significantly smaller and less violent than the initial oil and gas plume emanating from the broken riser. This suggests that a large portion of the well flow is now being produced in a controlled fashion.

On June 16, BP finally managed to connect the choke and kill lines below the BOP to a surface collection system onboard the Q4000 vessel. Both production lines (the top-hat riser and the choke-and-kill line riser) are capable of collecting around 25,000 barrels of oil and 30 million standard cubic feet of gas daily. Correcting volumes for the pressure difference between the sea bottom and the surface, the total flow of oil and gas through the BOP should be about 35,000 barrels a day, not 60,000 barrels a day as some claim.

Increased Flow

There are two reasons why the oil flow rate from the failed BP well may have increased from the initial 9,000 to 22,000 barrels a day, the amount estimated to have been leaking in May. First, the partially closed rams and rubber rings functioning as flow barriers in the BOP may have been eroded by oil and gas, and perhaps sand. Second, “wormholes,” or meandering flow tubes that connect the reservoir and the well, may have formed.

“Wormholes” are created when sandstone crumbles and washes away because either the oil and gas flow rate is high, or the reservoir oil is highly viscous, like cold molasses. The combined effect of rock and well erosion might have increased oil flow from about 20,000 to 30,000 barrels a day.

Soil in the Rain

The physics of this phenomenon, akin to washing soil away by rain, is nicely described on The Oil Drum website. Gas is an additional 50 percent of the total flow and is often conflated with the oil flow. As I indicated at the beginning, gas dissolves in the seawater at depth and doesn’t reach the ocean surface.

For the sake of perspective, consider the BP Thunder Horse platform, the world’s largest semisubmersible facility. Prior to the disastrous spill it was also the most productive platform in the Gulf of Mexico, located in water that’s about 6,050 feet (1,844 meters) deep. As of March 20, 2009, daily production at this platform was approximately 260,000 barrels of oil and 210.5 million standard cubic feet of natural gas a day from seven wells, an average of 37,000 barrels of oil and 30 million standard cubic feet of gas per well.

The former Minerals Management Service reports that the majority of ultra-deepwater wells in the Gulf of Mexico produce around 20,000 barrels of oil a day, with the best well in the entire region producing 41,000 barrels a day.

Failure Not Likely

Unless there has been a complete failure of the central 7- inch production casing -- which I don’t believe has occurred -- then no reason exists to believe the failed Macondo well is producing 60,000 barrels of oil a day.

Based on the available information and calculations, it is highly probable that the failed BP well is producing oil at a rate that is closer to 20,000 or 30,000 barrels of oil a day. If BP is currently collecting 25,000 barrels a day, then only some 5,000 barrels of oil are being spilled in the Gulf waters.

Based on the evidence presented thus far, it seems quite unlikely that 60,000 to 150,000 barrels of oil a day will ever flow from the Macondo well. By controlling the spill rate, BP has gained the breathing room required to successfully complete the bottom kill using the relief wells. I anxiously await the good news that the Macondo well has ceased flowing.

(Tadeusz W. Patzek is chairman of the petroleum and geosystems engineering department at the University of Texas- Austin. The opinions expressed are his own.)

(bloomberg.com)

Rice Production in Thailand May Decline 10% Next Season on Drought, Flood - Bloomberg

Production of Thailand’s main rice crop may decline by at least 10 percent in the season starting October as delayed rains followed by possible flooding may hurt crops, according to the Thai Rice Mills Association.

“Production of the main crop may be damaged,” Banjong Tungjitwattanakun, the association’s vice president, said in a phone interview. Thailand, the largest exporter, usually produces about 23 million metric tons of unmilled rice from the main crop, accounting for about 75 percent of its output.

The Thai government advised farmers to postpone planting to the end of July because of delayed rains and warned of possible crop damage after the Meteorological Department said there may by heavy rains and flooding in September and October.

This is the second time this year the authority has advised farmers to delay planting as the El Nino weather pattern reduced rainfall. The main rice crop is usually planted in May and harvesting begins in October.

Falling supplies may drive the price of Thai 100 percent grade-B white rice, the benchmark for Asia, to $500 a ton by the end of the year, Banjong said.

Thai rice prices have recovered from a two-year low of $469 a ton on June 9 as a strengthening local currency makes exports more expensive. The price of 100 percent grade-B white rice gained 1.7 percent today to $479 a ton. That’s near the lowest since February 2008, when the price averaged $466.25, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association’s website.

Rough rice futures traded in Chicago have tumbled 27 percent this year. The September-delivery contract lost 0.2 percent to $10.82 per 100 pounds at 4:02 p.m. in Singapore.

‘Double Impact’

“Farmers will suffer from the double impact of drought and flood,” Banjong said. “Drought already damaged 38 percent of the current crop, lowering output to 5 million tons from 8 million estimated earlier.”

Drought has damaged crops in 20 of Thailand’s 76 provinces, mostly in the north and northeast, which are major planting areas for rice and sugar. Drought linked to the El Nino weather pattern has affected a swathe of Asia, damaging crops from southern China to Southeast Asia.

“In the next season, total production may decline from a normal level of around 31 million tons,” said Banjong. The extent of the impact has yet to be assessed, he said.

Production may be even lower than estimated as some farmers will likely shift to crops that yield better returns, such as sugar cane, cassava, corn and rubber, as rice prices decline, Banjong said.

(bloomberg.com)

Monday, June 21, 2010

Toyota Affiliate Denso Says Chinese Parts Factory Is Shuttered by Strike

Toyota Motor Corp. was hit by at least the third strike among its suppliers in China as widening labor unrest continued to disrupt Japanese manufacturers’ output in the world’s biggest auto market.

Workers at a venture of Denso Corp., Japan’s biggest auto- parts maker, walked out yesterday, shutting the plant in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, Toshihiro Nishiwaki, a spokesman for the Aichi, Japan-based company, said by phone today. The parts maker is in talks with the employees, who are demanding higher pay and improved benefits, he said.

Labor unrest in China is spreading to Toyota after employees at suppliers to Honda Motor Co. agreed to return to work with promises of higher pay. Toyota closed a factory in Tianjin on June 18 because of a strike at supplier Toyoda Gosei Co. in the northern Chinese city, said Mieko Iwasaki, a spokeswoman for the carmaker.

“So far, at this stage, the strikes are occurring at Japanese suppliers,” which pay about half the wage level of European and American companies, said Lin Huaibin, an analyst in Shanghai at consulting company IHS Global Insight. “We could see unrest spread to Korean and Taiwanese makers.”

Denso is about 23 percent owned by Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Toyota said it’s unclear whether the strike will impact production at the carmaker’s ventures in Guangzhou and Tianjin, said Niu Yu, a Beijing-based spokesman for the carmaker. Shen Meihua, Denso’s Beijing-based spokeswoman, wasn’t immediately available for comment.

Six Strikes

Toyota fell 0.6 percent to 3,275 yen as of 1:52 p.m. in Tokyo trading, while Denso dropped 1.4 percent.

Denso Guangzhou Nansha Co., the joint venture in Guangzhou, manufactures and supplies fuel injection systems for customers including Toyota. The venture employs about 1,100 workers, according to a Denso company report.

Suppliers to Toyota and Honda agreed to raise wages as at least six previous strikes broke out at their Chinese factories in the past month, disrupting their production in the world’s largest auto market.

Toyota affiliate Toyoda Gosei Co. ended a strike on June 19. Workers at another Toyota supplier, Tianjin Star Light Rubber and Plastic Co., also walked out briefly on June 15 before the dispute was settled when the company offered a pay increase.

Pay Increases

Honda agreed last month to raise pay 24 percent for workers at a parts plant in Foshan after a strike shut down all four of its China car factories. Another Honda parts supplier in Foshan, Guangdong, was shut June 7 to June 10 by a walkout.

More than 20 Chinese provinces and cities, including the manufacturing hub Shenzhen, raised minimum wages this year to help companies recruit workers and to boost domestic consumption, the city government said this month.

Higher investment and improved wages in western China are deterring workers from migrating, pushing up pay in more industrialized regions like Guangdong in the south, said David Abrahamson, project manager at the China Center for Labor and Environment.

Workers say the pay increases are necessary to help keep pace with the rising cost of living in the world’s most populous nation. Inflation accelerated to an annual pace of 3.1 percent in May, the biggest increase in 19 months. Property prices in May jumped 12.4 percent across 70 cities from a year earlier, the government said June 10.

(bloomberg.com)